- NZD/USD is up 0.64% on the week.
- Russia’s attack on Ukraine extends for the third day in a row amid reports that Putin is open to talks with Ukraine.
- NZD/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral bias but 50 DMA capped Friday’s upside move.
Friday’s trading session so far has seen an improvement in risk appetite as European and US equities trade higher, ahead of the weekend in a busy week in financial markets. In the FX space, risk-sensitive currencies such as antipodeans led by the NZD and AUD gain, while those in safe-haven status fall. At press time, NZD/USD is higher, trading at 0.6730.
Developments in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia
Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues for the third day in a row. However, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is reported to be sending a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine. The headline positively changed the market mood, increasing demand for riskier assets.
It is worth noting that Bloomberg reported that the fall of Kiev to Russian forces could occur in the next 24/48 hours. That could spur a change in market sentiment, increasing the appeal for safe-haven status.
During the Asian session, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr crossed the wires, saying: “We are particularly concerned about inflation expectations,” considering conditions in Ukraine. The Governor also commented that he would “maintain the ability to move rates faster if necessary.”
The US economic agenda presented orders for durable goods for January, at 1.6% monthly, higher than the estimated 0.6%. For its part, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, PCE, rose to 6.1% y/y, higher than the 5.8% expected, while core PCE rose to 5.2%, higher than the 5.1% expected. In addition, the final assessment of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for February increased to 62.8, better than the 61.7
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
NZD/USD has a neutral bias, although it trades above the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6724, indicating that an uptrend would accelerate but would be subject to Friday’s daily close above the previous one. .
IF that scenario plays out as planned, NZD/USD would be exposed to upward pressure. That said, the first resistance for the NZD/USD would be the Feb 23 high at 0.6809. Once cleared, the next resistance level would be the 100 DMA at 0.6850. A break of the latter would expose the Jan 13 daily high at 0.6890.
Additional technical levels
|Last Price Today||0.6739|
|Today’s Daily Change||0.0031|
|Today’s Daily Change %||0.46|
|Today’s Daily Opening||0.6708|
|20 Daily SMA||0.6659|
|50 Daily SMA||0.6728|
|100 Daily SMA||0.6855|
|200 Daily SMA||0.6948|
|Previous Daily High||0.6777|
|Previous Daily Minimum||0.663|
|Previous Maximum Weekly||0.673|
|Previous Weekly Minimum||0.6593|
|Monthly Prior Maximum||0.6891|
|Previous Monthly Minimum||0.6529|
|Daily Fibonacci 38.2%||0.6686|
|Daily Fibonacci 61.8%||0.6721|
|Daily Pivot Point S1||0.6633|
|Daily Pivot Point S2||0.6558|
|Daily Pivot Point S3||0.6487|
|Daily Pivot Point R1||0.678|
|Daily Pivot Point R2||0.6852|
|Daily Pivot Point R3||0.6927|
Source: Fx Street