NZD/USD rises amid mixed market sentiment, with sights set on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

  • US Existing Home Sales fall -2.2% in July, citing “stock availability” and rising “mortgage rates” as reasons.
  • The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index meets expectations with a -7 drop, while the services index surprises positively.
  • US bond yields show mixed dynamics, but the dollar continues its rise with the DXY at 103.588.

The pair NZD/USD recovers some ground although it is away from the highs of the day of 0.5972, trading at 0.5941, amid a mixed market environment stimulated by fears about recent events in China and uncertainty about the outcome of the Fed Chairman’s speech US Federal Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole.

Kiwi recovers slightly but remains under pressure on China concerns and US economic data

US stocks pull back as market sentiment remains fragile. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed that Existing Home Sales fell -22% in July, but improved compared to June’s figures, which were -3.3%. According to the report, “inventory availability” and rising “mortgage rates” are the factors driving the drop in the latest report, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun revealed.

In other data released by the Richmond Fed, the manufacturing index plunged -7 as expected in August, although the services index beat estimates for a -4 contraction to 4.

US bond yields are mixed, as the short leg of the curve continues to decline, while the 10, 20 and 30 legs fall between 0.18% and 0.47%. However, the dollar continues to rise, and the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against six currencies, advanced 0.26% to 103.588.

Meanwhile, Richmond Fed Chairman Thomas Barkin stressed that hitting the 2% target is crucial to the Fed’s credibility. Later in the day, moreover, Fed policymakers will cross the wires, with Bowman and Golsbee below.

In New Zealand (NZ), the lack of economic data has traders keeping an eye on the latest developments in China and market sentiment. However, retail sales for the second quarter are due to be released on Wednesday and are expected to exceed previous quarterly figures, while quarter-on-quarter developments are expected to disappoint investors. Therefore, an advance of the NZD/USD could be expected.

In the US, the economic agenda will include the presence of the Fed, the S&P Global PMIs, durable goods orders and new home sales.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Technical Perspective

NZDUSD remains biased to the downside despite rebounding from year-to-date lows of 0.5896. If NZD/USD buyers want to turn the trend back to neutral, they need to recapture the May 31 daily low turned resistance at 0.5985, followed by the June 8 daily low at 0.6031. However, the NZD/USD path of least resistance is to the downside, and it could test the Nov 10 daily low at 0.5840, followed by the Nov 3 swing low at 0.5741.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZD/USD Daily chart

NZD/USD

Overview
Last price today 0.5945
Today I change daily 0.0016
today’s daily variation 0.27
today’s daily opening 0.5929
Trends
daily SMA20 0.6062
daily SMA50 0.6146
daily SMA100 0.6166
daily SMA200 0.6231
levels
previous daily high 0.5936
previous daily low 0.5895
Previous Weekly High 0.5997
previous weekly low 0.5903
Previous Monthly High 0.6413
Previous monthly minimum 0.612
Fibonacci daily 38.2 0.591
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 0.592
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5904
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5879
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5864
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5945
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.596
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.5985

Source: Fx Street

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