NZDUSD bears look for a break below 0.6130

  • NZDUSD bulls eye further US dollar weakness.
  • Technical data points to the downside if it breaks below 0.6130.

The NZDUSD It could go to the top based on the charts below, but it was a quiet day in the middle of the week in financial markets. The price is hovering around 0.6150, between the overnight highs of 0.6193 and 0.6128.

US retail sales did not help the dollar’s decline. In the US, October sales rose 1.3%m/m, beating expectations for a 1.0% rise and rising sharply from 0.0% in September. “The data suggests that consumer demand remains strong, something the Fed is trying to reduce through its rapid monetary tightening. The data justifies a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in December.” ANZ Bank analysts explained.

There is growing confidence that the US dollar cycle has topped out, and ANZ Bank analysts said their focus is on the New Zealand dollar gap over fair value (which they see at ~0.65), in the RBNZ. Analysts said the central bank is “well placed to close the gap on US interest rates, and on reopening China, which should be good for commodities.” But it is complex, given the fear that the Fed’s tone will still be quite determined at the end of the cycle. In our view, the technicals remain reasonably bullish.”

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The price is peaking on the time frames, based on the 1-hour chart above and the 4-hour chart below:

On the 4 hour chart, however, there are prospects of a triple top scenario as illustrated above.

Source: Fx Street

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