Obligation to vaccinate, the signs begin to multiply

The signs on a possible introduction of thevaccination obligation against the Covid-19 they begin to become more stringent. Let’s try to put them in order. Yesterday Sergio Abrignani, immunologist and member of the technical-scientific committee, explained to the Press that «the only solution is the obligation to vaccinate. I am clamoring for vaccination to become mandatory, for public health reasons, to mitigate what will happen in the next few weeks, that is, an increase in hospitalizations for the unvaccinated ”.

The starting point of the assessment is that the green pass “is working” and that “it will become even more effective when it gets colder and many outdoor activities will no longer be possible”. Among other things, in a somewhat contradictory way with respect to the evidence that tells us about a decline in the effectiveness of vaccines in terms of infections around six months, in Italy the validity of the green certificate it will be extended to one year.

“Many hesitant will be convinced, some opposed to the vaccine will change their mind – observed Abrignani – but there will always be a significant share of no vax animated by paranoid certainties, and those will not move them, if not by imposing vaccination by law”. Another signal is the one launched by the minister Mariastella Gelmini that instead a Republic explained how she and her party, Forza Italia, are “in favor of compulsory vaccination. If within a few weeks 80% of immunized people are not reached, I think it would be right to provide for a form of vaccination obligation, at least for those who perform public functions ». For example, starting with the employees of the Public Administration.

80% is in fact the threshold that the executive has set as a distinction: if the government intends to avoid the obligation, and for this reason from 1 September the green pass will serve even more activities including travel and universities, in the end, the numbers of vaccination coverage will speak. Among other things, with the third dose which will probably be necessary from the end of the year substantially for everyone, starting with immunosuppressed people and the elderly. 80% of Italians over 12 must therefore be vaccinated by September otherwise the obligation could become a reality from October, at least from a certain age onwards. For example, almost two million people over 60 are still completely uncovered: they have not even received the first dose. They are the people who risk the most hospitalizations and deaths during the cold season.

At the moment the official data of the campaign explain that almost 70% of Italians over 12 years old, the vaccinable audience awaiting authorization for the little ones, received both doses. There are 37.4 million people, 69.3% of those over 12 and 60.2% of the total. If 5% is awaiting the recall, another 5% remains to be reached within a month. The emergency commissioner, Francesco Paolo Figliuolo, a few days ago said he was convinced that “the goal declared in March of vaccinating 80% of the population over 12 years old will be fully completed by 30 September”. The physiological slowdowns in August will soon be a memory and the rhythms of the injections, according to the Army general, have already returned to a good level since 23 August.

Obviously that of 80% is a public health goal: as many experts have explained, the enormous contagiousness of the Delta variant (and its probable greater severity) will not magically disappear when a threshold is reached which, considered on the total population, will also be lower. In conclusion, herd immunity will remain a mirage. But that wide coverage will allow, as happened during the summer, to reduce the burden on health systems, mitigating the effects of the syndrome on those who – when vaccinated – should eventually become infected and face an autumn and winter different from those of 2020.

In this sense, they will be fundamental the data for the next month and a half with the reopening of schools and the resumption of activities at full capacity, the definitive return from holidays and the evaluation of the capacity of the extended green pass to push even more people to protect themselves and others. After a week of descent, for example, last week the contagion curve has started to rise again in 13 regions: a small increase of 3.8% that breaks the illusion of a declining curve triggered by -0.8% last week. In reality, the number of tampons has also increased. The beds occupied in the ordinary Covid wards on the evening of last Sunday were instead 4,133 hospitalized, less than the 4,239 of the previous Sunday. A comforting figure, however, unrelated to that of intensive care: 525 people hospitalized on 29 August against 472 on 22 August. Unfortunately, the victims are also growing again, albeit slightly: the analyst of Ispi Matteo Villa he pointed out as, on a European scale, the fork is dangerously closing. «The” gap “between new cases and new deaths, opened thanks to vaccines, is closing: cases have been falling for a month. Deaths continue to rise, “he explained.

A few days ago also the Bioethics Council, chaired by Maurizio Mori, full professor of bioethics at the University of Turin, explained to theAnsa to consider the obligation “a right of the citizen, a service that people all over the world should ask of the States”. He added that “the meaning is that if you want to stay in society and not shut up at home, you have the task and the burden of getting vaccinated”, also announcing the publication in the coming days of the opinion of the Council in favor of the obligation to vaccinate anyone have social relationships.