Oil: Brent closed below 100 dollars, with an eye on a possible agreement of major powers – Iran

International oil prices edged lower on Thursday, with Brent and U.S. crude notching their first losses in three sessions, amid expectations of a major-power-Iran deal over Tehran’s nuclear program that could bring back hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian oil on the international market.

Traders are also waiting to see whether major oil producers rallying within the OPEC cartel will decide to cut production to support high prices at their meeting in less than two weeks.

The global benchmark, Brent oil for October deliverylost $1.88, or 1.9%, to close at $99.34 a barrel.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the US WTI crude for October delivery recorded losses of $2.37 or 2.5%, closing at $92.52 a barrel.

Brent and WTI had closed Wednesday at their highest levels since July 29, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Traders are focused “on two things only, exclusively,” said Naeem Aslam, head of market analysis at AvaTrade. “On the one hand is the possibility of an Iran nuclear deal, which can bring Iranian oil back into the market and, more importantly, into line with OPEC production.”

There are, he noted, “a lot of rumors in the market that a deal with Iran is very likely as, as expected, the Islamic country withdrew some of the conditions it initially set. The tone from the US and its European allies seems extremely positive” and shows that there will likely be white smoke.

International media reported on Wednesday that Tehran was considering a US response to the European Union’s draft deal, but there were reports that Washington rejected all the additional terms Iran had asked to be included in the deal.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s informal leader, began discussions about a possible production cut by the cartel. “This addresses the core concern among traders that the reimportation of Iranian oil could destabilize the oil supply and demand curve.”

OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, in the broader OPEC+ scheme, are planning their next monthly meeting for September 5.

Markets are also awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s position at the central bankers’ conference in Jackson Hole, notes Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. This could “indirectly” affect commodities like crude, depending on how the US dollar reacts to what the US central banker says.