Oil closes down, with OPEC+ plan on the radar

Oil futures contracts closed lower this Thursday (30) as traders followed the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to maintain the current supply plan. Movements by US President Joe Biden are also on the radar.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of WTI oil due for delivery in August dropped 3.66% (US$ 4.02), to US$ 105.76, while Brent oil for the following month fell 3, 04% ($3.42), at $109.03, on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

OPEC+ members maintained their plan to increase oil production by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, as announced after the cartel’s ministerial decision. Commodity assets even reduced losses shortly after the information.

Capital Economics assesses, however, that it is unlikely that OPEC+ will be able to increase supply quickly enough through August to reach its target for the month. Member countries have been falling millions of barrels below their target for months and the scenario is unlikely to change, the consultancy says, given capacity limitations in Nigeria and Angola, for example, as well as issues related to sanctions against Russia. .

Also today, Biden said he had asked countries in the Persian Gulf to increase their oil production to contain the price scale of the commodity. However, the president denied that debating the matter is his main objective on his visit to the Middle East next month.

Stifel analyzes that recent oil movements make clear the divergent forces acting on the commodity markets. On the one hand, there are weak purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) for June and the prospects for tightening financial conditions that should weigh on oil demand. At the same time, the supply of oil is limited in the current scenario.