The hard data of the United States still seem quite good and there are no real signs of the feared stagflation so far. This is not surprising, since most tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, so it is unlikely that markets see effects until tariffs are really implemented. Unless more suspended, this would be the case in mid -July, that is, in the second half of the year, says CommerzBank’s currency analyst Antje Praefcke.
The US hard data still seem reasonable
“The great uncertainty is having an impact on corporate decisions, even if this is not yet really visible on hard data. At least the feeling indicators that are weakened, such as the ISM index for manufacturing and services, suggest that something is happening between companies and consumers. But for now, we will probably have to accept that the foundations in the US He will confirm the June market for labor market. “
“Do not let the weak ADP index (‘only’ 37K jobs created in the private sector), which already weighed on the US dollar (USD) yesterday, scared you: it underestimated official data in 63K in February, 54K in March and 105K in April. We have often repeated that the ADP index is not a good indicator for NFP numbers.”
“The fact that hard data even seems reasonable would be one – although very simple – explanation of why the market rates and foreign exchange markets are diverging something: the interest rates market is reacting more strongly to the inflation prospects influenced by tariff Form of the fogged status of the USD and the US government bonds as safe shelters affect both equally. “
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
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