Only internal instability can change Venezuela’s situation, expert tells CNN

Nicolás Maduro’s victory in Venezuela’s presidential elections, which were marked by international questioning, did not surprise experts. According to Silvio Cascione, director of Euroasia Group in Brazil, the most likely scenario is that Maduro will remain in power, even without transparency in the electoral process.

In an interview with CNN 360° Cascione stated that the Venezuelan electoral process was flawed from the beginning, appearing “premeditated to lead to a greater concentration of power around Maduro’s leadership.” The expert highlighted that international pressure in the past did not have the desired effect.

The sanctions imposed on Venezuela, according to Cascione, have failed to destabilize the Maduro regime. On the contrary, they have caused a serious deterioration in the country’s economy, leading to a wave of migration that has even affected the United States. “It’s an important story for the elections, for the American election campaign this year,” the analyst noted.

The situation has reached a point where the United States has relaxed some of its sanctions. Now, there is a new scenario of international pressure, with attempts to build a dialogue to bring Maduro and the opposition to some kind of conciliation.

Cascione stressed that without a rift between Maduro and the Venezuelan military, it is unlikely that the president will give up power. “The most likely scenario is that he will be able to overcome this period,” the expert said.

However, Cascione pointed out that internal instability could be a factor for change. “The great uncertainty that exists today, something that could destabilize the government at this most critical moment, would be the intensity of the demonstrations, the government’s repression of these protests, the regime’s repression of these protests,” he explained. According to him, a greater escalation of violence in Venezuela could change the current scenario.