OPEC cuts 2022 global oil demand forecast to 2.6m bpd

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised downward its forecast for an increase in global oil demand in 2022 from 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.6 million bpd, according to monthly report published this Wednesday (12).

OPEC estimates that the production of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will account for 1.4 million bpd and countries outside the group, for 1.3 million bpd.

For 2023, the organization also cut its forecast for a rise in global consumption, from 2.7 million bpd to 2.3 million bpd.

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OPEC has lowered its forecast for increased oil supply from non-group producers in 2022 from 2.1 million bpd to 1.9 million bpd, according to a monthly report now published.

The countries that should contribute most to the increase in supply this year are the United States, Canada, China, Brazil and Guyana, says the organization.

At the other end, production should fall in Thailand and Norway. For 2023, OPEC also lowered its forecast for increased supply outside the group, from 1.7 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd.

Brazil

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained the forecast for the Brazilian supply of the commodity in 2022, at 3.7 million bpd, according to the monthly report.

For the following year, the entity reiterated its projection of Brazilian supply at 3.9 million bpd.

The increase in production this year should be led by the “continuous advance” in the Sepia field, in addition to the start of Mero 1 at the Santos and Peregrino pre-salt base.

As for 2023, OPEC projects an increase in production in the Mero, Búzios, Tupi, Peregrino, Sépia and Itapu fields. However, he points out that offshore maintenance is likely to cause disruptions in the largest fields.