OPEC: Micron and interest rates unlikely to hurt oil demand

The Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reiterated on Tuesday that global demand for oil would grow strongly in 2022 despite the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and the expected interest rate hikes, predicting that during the year.

OPEC’s optimistic assessment comes at a time when oil prices have reached their highest level since 2014, with a rally in prices fueled by tight supply.

In its monthly report, OPEC maintains unchanged its estimate that global oil demand in 2022 will increase to 4.15 million barrels per day, as well as its forecast that oil consumption will exceed 100 million barrels per day in the third quarter.

“Although the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus could have an impact in the first half of 2022, due to the impact of any further quarantine measures and an increase in hospitalizations in the workforce, forecasts for economic growth remain strong,” the monthly report said. cartel.

Rising interest rates, which are expected to curb inflation but are seen by some as a risk factor for oil demand, are unlikely to affect market outlook, OPEC added. As he explains, the expected interest rate hikes in the US in the second quarter of the year will coincide with the summer season in the northern hemisphere, which increases the demand for fuel.

“Monetary policy movements are not expected to hurt global economic growth, but rather to help recalibrate economies, which would otherwise overheat,” OPEC said, adding that market support factors would be maintained throughout the year. .

In this context, he estimates that this year’s demand will drive oil consumption above pre-pandemic levels. On an annual basis, according to OPEC, global consumption exceeded 100 million barrels per day in 2019.

Oil prices rose after the release of the OPEC monthly report, with the global Brent benchmark hovering close to $ 88 a barrel, having previously reached $ 88.13, which is the highest level since October 2014. and US crude at $ 85 a barrel.

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