The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) predicts that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production will increase by nearly 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, the biggest year-over-year increase in oil production. OPEC since 2004.
According to the DoE, the forecast increase is based on the interpretation of the January 2022 OPEC+ meeting, when participants reaffirmed their decision to continue increasing production by 0.4 million bpd each month until all oil cuts are complete. production are reversed.
The DoE further highlighted that heightened political risk following the delay in Libya’s presidential and parliamentary elections continues to create uncertainty. Furthermore, for the DoE, the ongoing maintenance of the country’s aging infrastructure also continues to limit production.
“As a result of this disruption in Libya, we estimate that unplanned disruptions in OPEC countries increased to 2.2 million bpd in December 2021.”
However, the organization believes that recent production disruptions in Libya are more than offset by production increases from other OPEC members.
The DoE also estimates that despite the recent increase in unplanned outages, OPEC members still have more excess production capacity than they had on average in the past.
In this way, OPEC crude oil production will increase by 2.5 million bpd to an average of 28.8 million bpd in 2022.
Reference: CNN Brasil