The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects the cartel’s liquids production to expand from 31.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2021 to around 36 mb/d in 2022, remaining stable in around this level in the medium term.
However, liquids are expected to rise again, rising to 42.4 mb/d by 2045. Oil World Cup, released this Monday, 31.
The document also states that the supply of liquids from non-OPEC countries will continue its post-pandemic recovery and should grow from 63.6 mb/d in 2021 to 71.4 mb/d in 2027. 7 and 67.4 and 68.5 in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively.
For the cartel, the US will continue to be the main source of growth in the medium term, providing 3.9 mb/d or 50% of incremental production. Other important sources of supply growth in the medium term are: Brazil (+1.2 mb/d), Guyana (+0.8 mb/d), Canada (+0.5 mb/d) and Norway (+0. 4 mb/d). In contrast, geopolitical tensions from the conflict in Ukraine are expected to result in a drop of 0.7 mb/d in Russian liquid supplies over the medium term.
“Risks to the economic outlook, high inflation, energy policy targets faced with energy security challenges and questions about investment deficits, along with persistent and new geopolitical uncertainties, mean that significant risks remain regarding the long-term liquids supply outlook. term”, ponders OPEC.
By type of liquids produced by non-OPEC countries, the report states that, in the medium term, it forecasts growth in crude oil, which represents 4.7 mb/d, or 60% of the 7.9 mb/d projected increase in the horizon 2021-2027. Natural gas represents 1.7 mb/d, or just over 20%, and combined biofuels, refinery processing gains and “other liquids” make up another 1.4 mb/d, also close to 20%.
In the longer term, though, the trend for crude oil is reversed, with supply declining by 3.3 mb/d, “as fields mature more and more and with US crude, in particular, seeing a peak ”. At the same time, other non-crude liquids show growth in the period 2021-2045, “more than offsetting the decline in crude oil and allowing for a total increase in liquids of 3.9 mb/d by 2045”, concludes OPEC.
Source: CNN Brasil
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