In the next 15 years, Bitcoin could rise in price 64 times, to $10.63 million. This forecast was given by former physics professor Giovanni Sentostasi, based on a power-law model.
First cut from my 90 min deep dive with @Giovann35084111
This is the chart that you “can't unsee”.
Non-intuitive aspects of the power law
In the next 15 years of Bitcoin, we expect the price
to go up not by 2, but by 64! pic.twitter.com/K1RiQSPt1M— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) March 2, 2024
Power dependence — a mathematical relationship between two quantities in which a relative change in one quantity leads to a proportional relative change in the other, regardless of the original values of these quantities. The dependence of one quantity on another is power function.
The manifestation of this law can be found in a wide range of natural phenomena – from the frequency of earthquakes to the dynamics of changes in the stock market.
Sentostasi for the first time presented your forecast in the r/Bitcoin subreddit in 2018.
A renewed surge in interest arose in January 2024 after mentions model by influencer Andrey Dzheykh with 2.3 million subscribers.
According to the professor's calculations, digital gold will peak at $210,000 in January 2026 and then fall to $60,000.
Santostasi, in a discussion with mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, said that the model provides a clear and predictable scenario for the price of the first cryptocurrency over long periods of time.
In shorter periods, which the media primarily pays attention to, quotes behave “chaotically,” he added.
According to Sentostasi, unlike the criticized S2F model from PlanB
The power law is logarithmic, not exponential. In other words, the price of Bitcoin should not constantly increase over time. Adjustments can also be made for significant fluctuations during 2020–2023.
Krueger outlined the power law calculations applied to the first cryptocurrency. According to his findings, the rate will reach $96,360 over the next two years.
Hyperbitcoinization timeline and the meaning of 5.8
——————————————————-I have done a lot of thinking over the last 24 hours on the meaning of power laws, and the implication for future Bitcoin prices.
But as i asked @Giovann35084111 the… pic.twitter.com/4iSP0IQMse
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) March 2, 2024
By 2033, the capitalization of the asset will exceed that of gold. By this time, its digital analogue will be valued at $1 million. The price of the first cryptocurrency will reach $10.63 million by 2045, Kruger admitted.
Industry veteran and CEO of Blockstream Adam Back predicted Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 before the upcoming halving in April 2024.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes announced the possibility of reaching a level of $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.
Source: Cryptocurrency
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