Opinion: Europe no longer counts on Trump to defend it

Madeline Albright called America an “indispensable nation.” Is Former President Donald Trump Making America the Most Irrelevant Nation?

Trump finally broke days of silence over the death of Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny, but did not mention Russia or condemn President Vladimir Putin in his first public comments. However, congressional Republicans continued to follow his example, delaying assistance to Ukraine, the only nation facing Putin's armies.

House Speaker Mike Johnson resisted calls for a Senate-approved Ukraine aid package to be brought to a quick vote, instead allowing the House to adjourn for a nearly two-week recess.

There may be majority support for aid to Ukraine in the House as a whole, but Johnson faces strong opposition from conservatives to additional aid, with Trump encouraging Republicans to reject it.

These measures follow Trump's recent threat to tell Russia to “do whatever it wants” to any NATO member country that is behind on its military expenditures.

The result? Growing fears of a frightening new shift in the United States have left a growing number of European leaders determined to act on their own.

Even President Joe Biden's comments to an obstinate Congress that “the way they walk away from the threat from Russia, the way they walk away from the threat from NATO, the way they walk away from fulfilling our obligation, is shocking,” did not helped.

Indeed, much was made at the Annual Munich Security Conference about the failures of Congress. Most European leaders have returned from Munich, more convinced than ever that the United States is about to abandon them.

For many, it is clear that democracies must begin to consider, in concrete terms, how to defend themselves without the US nuclear and security umbrella under which they have thrived for more than half a century.

Before leaving, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen even announced that Denmark would hand over all of her country's artillery to Ukraine, as well as F-16 fighters. “We have to do more,” said Frederiksen, just days away from the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The first steps towards a new direction for such a Europe – without America – are already being taken. In Berlin, Ursula von der Leyen, the former German defense minister who ably led the continent for five years as president of the European Commission, announced on Monday that she would seek a second term. At the top of her agenda, she says, would be the creation of Europe's first defense commissioner.

However, the creation of a pan-European ministry goes far beyond the simple remodeling of bureaucrats in Brussels. First, there is the issue of budgets.

The reduction in funding from America can already be felt across Europe. As reported by CNN American support for Ukraine is still bleeding resources from the U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command, now with three billion dollars left to fund five billion dollars in operational needs, including transporting weapons and equipment to Ukraine and even to Poland, a member of NATO.

Without congressional action, funding for U.S. operations in Europe could come to an end in May, with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth hoping to “sell lunch to pay for dinner.”

Von der Leyen also said that increasing European defense production would be a top priority for her second term – not to mention analyzing the widely divergent budgets of the various countries.

As far as Ukraine is concerned, despite its initial vows of eternal solidarity, the government of French President Emmanuel Macron has committed just 640 million euros (about 686 million dollars), compared to 17.7 billion euros (equivalent to $19.1 billion) from Germany in military aid, according to calculations by Germany's Kiel Institute, an economic research institute and think tank. Although the French figure has been disputed, the institute states that “France’s contributions “are well below those of the United Kingdom”, which is only in the intermediate category of European suppliers.

Still, as a bloc, Europe, with around 85 billion euros (92 billion dollars), has already surpassed the United States, with 66.2 billion euros (71.6 billion dollars), in total commitments to Ukraine. US military assistance has been superior to that of the EU, although it has now been halted in the face of congressional inaction, while EU aid is increasing.

Then there is the nuclear issue. The US has around 100 nuclear weapons installed at air bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey – although all the launch codes are in US hands. France is the only country in the European Union with its own arsenal – the fourth largest in the world. With 290 operational warheads, it is the largest in Europe, although it is only 5% the size of Russia.

France has refused to cede control of such weapons to any other power, although this may change. On a recent visit to Sweden, Macron suggested that while nuclear deterrence is in “France’s vital interest,” such plans should have a “clear European dimension, which gives us a special responsibility.”

The United Kingdom, although no longer part of the EU, has an arsenal of 225 nuclear weapons. At the Munich Security Conference, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who is in opposition, said that the Labor Party, if elected in this year's election, would propose “a new security pact between the United Kingdom and the European Union ”.

All these efforts and commitments represent a dramatic change of direction for a continent that for decades remained unswervingly chained to America as its guarantor. To oversee this process, Europe needs a strong and resolute individual for its first defense czar.

One of the favorites is Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who has already taken the lead on an EU plan to deliver 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine.

“We need a combat-effective Europe, capable of ensuring its own defense. This is the only way to build deterrence through denial that would be credible enough to avert war and stop Russia's cycle of aggression,” Kallas wrote last year for Politico Europe.

“Since the invasion began, we have seen Russia skyrocket Europe's monthly artillery production in a single day in Ukraine. Capability and sustainability will determine the outcome of this war.”

Kallas has a clear motivation for taking on such a role – a Russian target on his back. Last week, the Kremlin placed her on a wanted list, apparently the first head of government to be targeted. (Moscow accused Kallas and others of destroying or damaging monuments in memory of Soviet soldiers.) And in Munich, she proposed confiscating all of Russia's assets frozen abroad and handing them over to Ukraine – ahead of the US presidential elections in November.

The clearest evidence, however, of how far Europe has moved away from America and toward self-sufficiency was an opinion column by Estonian President Alar Karis on Monday, which discussed defending the region without a only reference to the United States or Donald Trump.

“Any European country would have difficulty facing Russia alone,” Karis noted. “But when we are united, we are invincible.”

Or, in a direct slap at Trump, the German magazine Der Spiegel observed: “NATO, of course, is not a (debt) collection agency.”