Opinion: How Putin could take revenge on the United States

The United States and its NATO allies have so far tried to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, but while they may avoid the military battle in Ukraine, other clashes are likely to follow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is aware that the West, led by the US, has become the arsenal for Ukraine’s defense against Russian invasion. That defense has so far turned Putin’s “special military operation” into a humiliating experience for the Russian strongman who, like other authoritarian leaders, does not take humiliation well.

That is why there is a good chance that Putin will seek revenge on the US.

US intelligence officials believe Putin is now willing to act more aggressively against the US, possibly taking riskier actions towards US democracy. This information comes from interviews with the CNN and other news organizations with various sources familiar with US intelligence assessments.

The intelligence assessment has not yet concluded whether Putin has made a decision or ordered an operation. But the White House has been warning private companies to beef up their security against Russian hackers. Of course, this is just one area Russia could attack.

An angry Putin, enraged by the disaster in Ukraine, is also attacking his own advisers. The Bellingcat investigative group says Putin has carried out a “Stalinist” purge, with more than 100 intelligence workers removed from their jobs in recent days. And there is little doubt that Putin is also angry at NATO, the US and President Joe Biden himself.

While Putin has many possible targets, perhaps none is more prominent, more inviting and more familiar than the US political system that is more disordered than at any other time in modern memory. America’s bruised democracy, scarred by its painfully inflamed political divisions, is ripe for exploitation. Given that Putin has exploited these divisions in the past, it seems increasingly likely that he will try to do so again.

And political divisions don’t just pit Democrats against Republicans; they are also furious within the Republican Party. In Georgia, for example, supporters of the Big Lie — the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump — have criticized Governor Brian Kemp, a staunch Republican who is facing a primary challenge from a candidate chosen to finger by the government.

former president

Putin has already interfered in the 2016 election. Several investigations, including the investigation of former Special Attorney Robert Mueller, have found that Russia interfered in “a comprehensive and systematic fashion” seeking to help Trump become president.

As Trump appears to view mentions of Russian election interference as a question mark over the legitimacy of his 2016 election victory, he could complicate efforts to alert the American public if Putin launches a campaign to interfere in the 2022 midterm elections or in the 2024 presidential election.

It didn’t help Trump’s cause that just two weeks ago he publicly offered Putin a way to retaliate against Biden, which conveniently suits Trump’s future political ambitions.

In an interview with conservative network Just the News, Trump suggested that Putin should find dirt on presidential son Hunter Biden’s alleged shady dealings in Russia — an allegation so far unproven. The request came as Russia was bombing Ukrainian civilians, prompting international investigations of possible war crimes.

It was a call that echoed Trump’s infamous 2016 message, “Russia, if you’re listening…” — asking Russia to help find the emails of then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Trump claims he was just joking, and yet five hours later, according to Mueller’s investigation, hackers working for Russian military intelligence broke into at least more than 50 Democratic Party computers, stealing emails that were released. later with extremely damaging weather for maximum damage to the Clinton campaign.

So what will Putin do this time?

Lively discussions on the matter are already underway every night on Russian state television channels. Malek Dudakov, a Russian political scientist, recently presented his preferred strategy against the West: “With Europe, economic wars must take priority. With the US, we must work to widen divisions and deepen polarization.”

Evgeny Popov, a Russian state TV presenter who is also a member of the Duma, Russia’s parliament, declared that it is time to ask Americans to bring regime change in the US before Biden’s term expires and “once again help our partner Trump to become president.”

With Russian television regularly pushing Republican figures, especially Trump, while belittling Biden, some Republicans — particularly those most devoted to the former president — may find it harder to reject Kremlin propaganda.

Putin can unsheathe new weapons to attack American democracy. But if he decides to interfere in the US elections, he is almost certain to present his old playbook, which he has deployed in the US and other countries. Its agents and supporters are likely to spread disinformation, unleash cyberattacks and increase the volume of pro-Putin voices in the US.

As Russian watchers have observed, Russian viewers are getting large doses of Tucker Carlson and other American far-rights on their late-night shows. Carlson, a Fox News presenter with high ratings, is returning the favor by amplifying Russian propaganda on his show last week. It’s a toxic cycle of disinformation that serves Putin’s goals in Russia and the US.

When Russian officials, for example, falsely claimed that the US was funding biological labs in Ukraine so Ukraine could attack Russia, the White House and others warned that this could be the precursor to Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine and later. blame Kiev. But on his show, Carlson repeated the Kremlin story. Russian television then aired clips of Carlson on Fox News trying to give credence to Russia’s lie. As a result, disinformation spread in the US and solidified in Russia.

In addition to a forceful response from the US government, there is a role for the American people to defend against another likely Russian attack. Putin’s problems in Ukraine call for greater vigilance and close scrutiny of information, especially when they echo Russian propaganda.

Of course, all sides in a conflict try to create their own narrative, but it is the Kremlin that has a well-established pattern of lying, fueling animosity and spreading disinformation. It seems quite likely that Putin will try even harder to turn Americans against each other, seeking revenge for American aid to Ukraine.

The current environment in the US makes this look like an easy victory for Putin, but perhaps Americans, after witnessing Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine, will offer some resistance.