US President Joe Biden was in Ireland last week and received a hero’s welcome on a parade-filled return to his ancestral home.
Meanwhile, in the US, Biden is overwhelmed, with approval ratings in the low 40s, a traditional warning sign for any incumbent about to launch a campaign for re-election.
Even more worrisome for the president are his rankings among the crucial independent voting bloc, which are between 20 and 30, depending on the poll.
Biden, who is due to formalize his re-election plans next week, has a significant body of achievements to try to run again. However, ongoing worries about the economy and his age got in the way.
Even among Democrats, Biden’s poll is mixed. About 8 in 10 approve of the work the president is doing, but less than half say they want him to run again – and just 44% say they believe he is the party’s strongest candidate, numbers that have improved slightly in recent weeks. .
However, upon returning from Ireland, Biden was his party’s almost certain candidate. No serious primary opponents emerged, though two candidates did emerge: Robert F. Kennedy Jr, heir to a hallowed name he tarnished with uninformed and irresponsible information about the dangers of vaccines; and Marianne Williamson, author, spiritual teacher and progressive activist who had run in 2020.
Neither is likely to be a competitive challenge, and barring unforeseen circumstances, neither challenge seems imminent.
So is the absence of a true primary challenge simply Biden’s luck? Mostly, no.
First, there are huge perks to incumbency that discourage challenges. Presidents have national political and fundraising networks, and the incredible power, platform, and trappings of office. They also have control of their party apparatus.
Serious challenges, even for embattled presidents, are rare. Right-wing populist challenger Pat Buchanan to President George HW Bush in 1992 failed, and Senator Ted Kennedy, the most recent candidate to issue a serious challenge, even threatened President Jimmy Carter’s 1980 re-election campaign, but ended up falling short.
Perhaps with that primary battle in mind, Biden has worked assiduously to court the progressive wing of the party from which such challenges often arise.
Its main domestic achievement, the Reducing Inflation Act, included a series of significant and enduring progressive targets; a historic package to combat climate change; a long-sought measure that enables Medicare to use its enormous market leverage to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies for lower prescription drug prices; a $35 cap on insulin costs for seniors; and several steps to strengthen and expand the Affordable Care Act.
Biden also signed a massive infrastructure bill, the first significant bipartisan gun safety bill in decades; and the Respect for Marriage Act, enshrining same-sex and interracial marriage protections in federal law.
Biden also benefited from Republicans taking a stand on issues like abortion and gun rights, which helped rally the Democratic base.
Second, structurally, the president has altered the playing field in a way that should make it harder for an opponent to enter.
Biden supporters in the Democratic National Committee (DNC) followed his recommendations and set up a firewall by voting to change the timing of early 2024 primary races to favor the states in which he was expected to win handily.
Off the official calendar entirely is the Iowa caucuses, the campaign’s traditional kickoff event but one that dealt Biden rudely with a fourth-place finish in 2020. Instead, the calendar will begin in South Carolina, a Biden stronghold where black voters and white moderates revived his candidacy and helped in his bid for the presidency.
New Hampshire, where Biden finished a dismal fifth in 2020, is slated to be the second campaign event, but will be joined by Nevada, a state where Biden can expect better treatment. According to the DNC plan, Michigan and Georgia, two other Biden-friendly states, will follow.
Not all of these changes are final. Yet New Hampshire, longtime host of the nation’s first primary (unlike conventions held in Iowa), is threatening to push back its 2024 date, in defiance of the DNC, to maintain its time-honored status. Republicans in Georgia may block the move to a date before the state primaries.
Finally, there is former President Donald Trump, whose candidacy is a boost for Biden among Democrats.
Despite his growing legal troubles, Trump, buoyed by his relentless base, remains the favorite to be his party’s nominee in 2024.
While many Democrats see the disgraced and indicted former president as eminently beatable, they’ve been down this road before. The specter of Trump, just one step away from a return to the presidency, is both chilling and unifying.
Biden supporters have argued that, given the stakes, the party cannot afford a turbulent primary or a rookie candidate. So despite concerns about Biden’s durability and unrest still lingering among some progressives, Democrats will likely back the current president as their best bet to stop Trump from returning.
Having endured doubts about his age and toughness four years ago when he set out on his successful bid to oust Trump from the White House, Biden enters a new campaign relying on the wisdom of another famous Irish-American politician he likes to quote.
“Don’t compare me to the Almighty,” said the late mayor of Boston, Kevin White. “Compare me to the alternative”.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
