After Monday’s decline and the resulting liquidation of more than $ 1 billion in long positions, Bitcoin made another move up today, missing the psychologically significant $ 50,000 level below $ 100. On some exchanges, this mark was taken, but the lack of confirmation from the largest trading platforms does not allow us to talk about another landmark achievement of bitcoin. Also above $ 50,000 are traded futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), in the markets of which there is traditionally overpayment.
At the same time, the ratio of long positions to short positions on the Bitfinex exchange, openly transmitting such information, has reached its highest level in at least four years. According to Datamish, 96.41% of the capital in Bitfinex margin positions is now set to grow Bitcoin. In recent times, the share of short positions decreased before the March collapse and the beginning of the rise in December, but in both cases the advantage was not as critical as it is now.
Patrick Heusser, head of trading at Crypto Finance AG, believes that to break through the $ 50,000 level, Bitcoin will need to increase capital inflows in the spot market. The rise from $ 40,000 is mainly associated with the actions of traders in derivatives such as futures.
“Derivatives have done their job and now seem exhausted,” he said, adding that without buying in the spot market, the cryptocurrency could continue to consolidate between $ 44,000 and $ 50,000.
Hope for such inflows was dimmed among traders yesterday, when reports began to circulate on the network that an investor purchased 111,600 BTC for more than $ 5 billion during a pullback. This amount is several times higher than the investments of the largest institutional investors, including Tesla and MicroStrategy. It was later revealed that the hope turned out to be false, as the alleged purchase was in fact a transfer of bitcoins between Binance’s own wallets.
The more tested indicator of the inflow of institutional assets does not give such signals yet. According to the CEO of the analytical company CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, during the previous stages of buying by large investors on the Coinbase exchange, the services of which they use to carry out their operations, there was an excess of the price of the cryptocurrency over the average market. Bitcoin is currently trading below the market average on Coinbase.
“The battle for $ 50,000 is between the whales of Coinbase (USD) and the whales of stablecoins (USDT). A negative premium on Coinbase, but a surplus of stablecoins on exchanges. The premium must be normalized for the next upward movement to occur, ”Zhu says.
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