The cost of the Fuels PEC can reach R$ 58.2 billion, if the voucher for truck drivers is R$ 1 thousand.
The estimates were made by the manager Ryo Asset, who calculated the values based on the three central pillars of the PEC: the truck driver voucher, compensation to states that exempt ICMS on fuel; and exemption from federal taxes on gasoline and ethanol.
Compensation to the states should cost R$29.6 billion and the exemption from federal taxes represents another R$20 billion, according to estimates previously released by government officials.
The cost of the voucher may vary according to the value of the benefit, which is still uncertain. Initially, the proposed value would be R$400, but government sources confirmed to CNN that there is an expectation that the value could rise to R$1,000.
If the value is BRL 400 and 750,000 truck drivers are covered, spending on the voucher would be BRL 3.39 billion. If the benefit rose to R$1,000 and 900,000 truck drivers received the aid, government spending would rise to R$6.99 billion.
Gabriel Barros, chief economist at Ryo Asset, responsible for the study, explains that the number of truck drivers covered was also not defined, but he chose to use two scenarios in the simulation: one with 900,000 truck drivers covered, which is the number of drivers registered in the government base; and another 750 thousand, a number already mentioned by the government when talking about the aid.
Therefore, in the scenario with the lowest voucher value and 750 thousand beneficiaries, the PEC would cost the public coffers R$ 54.6 billion. But considering the amount of BRL 1,000 and 900,000 drivers covered, it can reach a total cost of BRL 58.2 billion.
Gabriel Barros views the Fuels PEC with reservations. “The risk of losing control of the PEC during the process is great and expenses may extrapolate this initial estimate. An even greater risk in an election year,” he says.
He adds that truck driver assistance is a new expense and the Electoral Law prohibits the creation and payment of new benefits in an election year. But the idea is to include the benefit within the fuel PEC precisely to circumvent the legal restriction. “PECs promote changes in the Constitution, which is why they override the Electoral Law”.
The financial market reacted negatively to the PEC. Shortly after the news about raising the voucher to R$ 1,000 was released, after the closing of the trading session, the future dollar even increased its high and rose another 1.26%, beating R$ 5.21 – this after closed up 0.45%, at R$5.18 on the spot trading session. The stock market had already closed down 0.16%, at 99,522, but the Ibovespa futures expanded the losses and fell -1.43%, at 100,825 points.
The dollar rises with the increase in fiscal risk because the perception of risk in the economy increases when public accounts are forecast to deteriorate. Thus, foreign investors withdraw resources from the country, reducing the dollar supply in the domestic market, which leads the American currency to appreciate.
Amid the government’s attempts to circumvent the impacts of prices on the economy, other projects are suggested. According to policy analyst Caio Junqueira, members of the economic team are even considering giving up the fuel PEC to create a new emergency aid worth R$200, which would cost around R$22 billion.
Source: CNN Brasil
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