Categories: Markets

Philippines: GDP figures surprise on the upside — UOB

Julia Goh, Chief Economist at UOB Group, and Loke Siew Ting, Economist, comment on the latest GDP results for the Philippines.

Main conclusions

“The Philippine economy grew at a higher-than-expected pace of 7.2% YoY in Q4 2022 (vs UOB estimate: +6.5%, Bloomberg: +6.6%), but in trend terms, the growth rate it slowed from 7.6% in the prior quarter and a previous high of 8.2% in the first quarter of 2022. Real GDP growth for the full year was also higher than expected, at 7.6% in 2022 (UOB est: 7.4% , Bloomberg est: 7.4%, 2021: +5.7%), which represents the highest annual growth since 1976.”

“Almost all economic sectors registered positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, except agriculture, hunting, fishing and forestry. The resilience of household consumption, the increase in public spending, the maintenance of investments and Strengthening exports against a backdrop of slowing imports also helped support growth momentum last quarter and fully cushioned the drag on stock recall activities.”

“We expect real GDP to moderate further throughout 2023, taking the full-year economic growth rate to 5.0% (official est: 6.0%-7.0%) from a 46-year high of 7.6% in 2022. Our view primarily takes into account statistical base effects and downside risks to growth prospects Although the country’s economic growth is expected to continue its downward trend, inflation risks remain on the upside, which suggests the interest rate will need to rise further to reach sufficiently restrictive levels for some time, so we stand by our BSP forecast of two more 25bp hikes in Q1 2023 before pausing at 6.00 % since then.”

Source: Fx Street

Share
Published by
Joshua

Recent Posts

Civil Police indict professor for sexual crimes at university in MG

The Civil Police of Minas Gerais (PC-MG) concluded this Friday (24) the investigations and indicted…

13 mins ago

The composer, musician and comedian Juca Chaves dies at the age of 84

The composer, musician and comedian Juca Chaves died on Saturday night (25), aged 84.The artist,…

25 mins ago

Former Argentine President Mauricio Macri says he will not run for election

The former president of Argentina, Mauricio Macri, announced in a video released this Sunday (26)…

44 mins ago

Tarsier, the small primate once thought to be extinct, is once again a major attraction in the Philippines

He has long fingers, huge eyes, and a very small body, but hind legs that…

47 mins ago

Are Harry Styles and Emily Ratajkowski together?

hHarry Styles and Emily Ratajkowski they are together? One was enough kiss between the two…

2 hours ago

Putin: Not forming a military alliance with China

Clear message that Russia and China they do not form a military alliance sent o…

2 hours ago