Piraeus ‘sees’ a decline in the margin of Greek bonds

Bond markets are declining today as pessimistic forecasts by the International Monetary Fund for the slowdown in the growth of most developed economies are troubling investors.

The yield on the 10-year Greek bond is marginally lower than 3%.

Nevertheless, Piraeus Bank economists estimate that the markets have largely priced the fundamentals of the Greek economy in relation to those of Germany.

Despite the downward revision of 2021 GDP and the possible impact of inflationary pressures on economic activity, the de-escalation of the 10-year bond margin at the end of March by 26b to 212bb is justified by the relevant economic activity, competitiveness , fiscal flexibility and market risk-taking. Specifically, the statistical model for valuing the spread level determines a fair value at 191 bp. (from 205 -210 bp ranging). However, it is important to note that according to the same quantitative analysis, the Risk Balance Indicator passed for the first time after 14 months at a positive level, reflecting the greater probability that the spread will widen against the possibility of a possible decrease.

In the domestic bond market and more specifically in HDAT, transactions of 90 million euros were recorded, of which 74 million euros related to purchase orders. The yield on the 10-year bond stood at 2.97% compared to 0.94% of the corresponding German bond, resulting in a margin of 2.03%.

The US currency seems to have entered the uptrend in the foreign exchange market as the dollar reached today the highest levels of the last two years against the euro.

The euro fell below $ 1.08 today (to $ 1.0761), but recovered slightly in the early afternoon to $ 1.0803.

The indicative price for the euro / dollar exchange rate. announced by the ECB stood at $ 1.1008.