Crypto trader PlanB admitted that for the first time its stock-to-flow Bitcoin price model will fail, as it is unlikely to hit the $ 98,000 level at the end of November.
Prior to that, the model was quite stable and showed coincidence with reality. In accordance with it, at the end of August, bitcoin closed at $ 47,000 and fell to $ 43,000 at the end of September.
October was also close to the predictive price as BTC closed the month at $ 61,000, while PlanB was targeting $ 63,000. An anonymous analyst classified this minor difference as a “rounding error.”
During a podcast with Bitcoin Standard author Syfedean Ammous, PlanB highlighted the difference between the S2F model and its “worst-case scenario.” The latter is not so much the production and demand for BTC as a technical model based primarily on the 200-day moving average.
Given the accuracy of the model, many crypto market participants expected the November price of $ 98,000 to be reached as well. Moreover, the current month is perhaps the best in the history of BTC, as it brought the main cryptocurrency another all-time high of almost $ 70,000.
However, then the situation changed radically, a serious correction began, and now BTC is fluctuating from $ 57,000 to $ 59,000.
Thus, to reach $ 98,000, bitcoin must increase its dollar value by more than 65%. With less than a week left until the end of November, PlanB acknowledged that the task may not be feasible, even for the mainstream cryptocurrency.
However, the analyst noted that globally the stock-to-flow model has not exhausted itself and the $ 100,000 mark will be reached later.
Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). S2F model not affected and indeed on track towards $100K. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 25, 2021
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