Popular analyst PlanB described a potentially bearish scenario for Bitcoin this year. It relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model.
Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down.
There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K pic.twitter.com/hDONOVgxH1
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 20, 2021
“Bitcoin fell below $ 34,000 due to Elon Musk’s tweet about the unfriendliness of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,” he tweeted. “However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $ 47,000, September> $ 43,000, October> $ 63,000, November> $ 98,000, December> $ 135,000. ”
The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $ 450,000.
PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however it is confident that Bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And by the end of the year, the price will reach $ 135,000.
Commenting on his own tweet, PlanB noted that it still counts on a favorable set of circumstances.
The stock to flow model is based on Nick Szabo’s concept of “irresistible cost”. It estimates the change in the scarcity and value of bitcoin over time.
Other forecasts
Peranny Boring in an interview with CNBC noted that Bitcoin could reach $ 288,000, while referring to the same model:
“According to the Stock to flow model, Bitcoin should be in the range of $ 100,000 to $ 288,000 this year. We have 12 years of Bitcoin statistics, and we can use them to build a Stock to flow model. The US dollar, for example, correlates with stock to flow by 94%. ”
Nexo co-founder Anthony Trenchev believes Bitcoin will be worth $ 100,000. He announced this in an interview with Bloomberg. Trenchev also believes other countries will follow the example of El Salvador and make bitcoin legal tender.
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