PlanB: Bitcoin Will Cost $240,000

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $59,697. Based on the forecast of the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, PlanB, by the end of the bull cycle, the value of BTC will soar to $240,000.

Repeat the success of 2017 and 2021

According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s price has historically quadrupled when it exceeds its 200-week moving average (MA), a widely used technical analysis tool that helps identify long-term trends for cryptocurrencies.

The 200 MA is also often used to determine whether the market is in a bullish or bearish trend. Typically, when BTC rises above the indicator, it signals potential price growth and an ongoing bullish cycle. When Bitcoin falls below the 200 MA, it means that the bullish trend has not yet been confirmed.

Bitcoin 200-week moving average. Source: PlanB on X.

However, PlanB pointed out that even during the powerful bull run of 2017, Bitcoin’s price dipped below $4,000 for a time. By the top of the cycle, BTC had risen to $17,760.

A similar situation was observed during the next bull market. In November 2020, the number one cryptocurrency by market cap was trading at $15,560, and a year later, at $69,000.

PlanB’s analysis shows that even within a strong trend, there can be short-term corrections that cause the price to temporarily fall below the 200 MA. However, if the long-term outlook is truly strong, the cryptocurrency will eventually return above this line.

History rarely repeats itself, but it often rhymes. If PlanB’s analysis is correct, then Bitcoin’s recent surge to $73,750 does not necessarily mark the top of the current cycle. The bull run may still have some room to run.

There is no bear market here

PlanB’s stance runs counter to signs that the cycle is nearing its end and a bear market is on the way. However, the analyst is not alone in believing that crypto winter is still a long way off.

BloFin’s Head of Research and Options Griffin Arden believes that the weak performance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies does not indicate the end of the bull cycle.

The expert also added that the BTC one-year implied forward rate is higher than the risk-free rate. During a bear market, the opposite is usually true. This indicator often reflects bullish and bearish sentiment among options traders. The chart below shows a bullish trend.

BTC Options Annualized Implied Straight Rate. Source: Amberdata

BTC Forecast

The above analysis is also supported by the Bitcoin Sell Risk Ratio. This indicator compares the total value of the coins spent with the realized market capitalization.

A high sell risk ratio often signals diminished investor confidence in the asset’s future and increased market volatility. A low ratio suggests that the risk of selling at a significant loss is relatively small.

These conditions typically precede the start of a new bull cycle. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s risk-to-sell ratio fell to 0.16% in March from 0.71%. This reinforces the view that the current trend could have huge upside potential.

BTC Selling Risk Ratio. Source: Glassnode

The cryptocurrency is currently close to hitting bottom. Even if Bitcoin fails to reach $240,000 at the top of the cycle, the bull market is still in its early stages. However, if selling pressure increases, the coin could experience another correction.

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