The countdown to the second round of presidential elections in Colombia continues and almost two weeks before the final date, Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, took advantage of each other, by a few, very few percentage points in voting intentions.
A week after the first round that reduced the options from six to just two candidates, two polls (Massive Caller and GAD3) give Rodolfo Hernández a slight advantage over Gustavo Petro.
But other researchers, such as the National Consulting Center, Guarumo and YanHass, put Petro at a slight advantage over Hernández. The key is the margin of error, as well as blank votes.
That’s what the research says.
Massive Caller Search
The Mexican company Massive Caller conducted a telephone survey of 1,000 people on June 1, 2022, three days after the first shift, and the results read as follows:
Rodolfo Hernández — 55.4% of voting intentions.
Gustavo Petro — 44.6% of voting intentions.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.4%, so Hernández’s lead over Petro could fluctuate.
GAD3 search
The Spanish researcher debuts with a so-called “presidential follow-up” in which he carried out this research for the so-called Great Media Alliance, formed by the local media RCN Radio, Noticias RCN, La Fm and the newspaper La República, among other media.
The voting intention until June 6th is as follows:
Rodolfo Hernández — 52.3% (in the previous measurement, after the first round, it was 52.5%)
Gustavo Petro — 45.1% (in the previous measurement, after the first round, it was 44.5%).
The blank vote in this poll is 2.6%.
Fact sheet: 1,755 surveys carried out between May 30 and June 1, 2022.
Publication date: June 2, 2022
Guarumo and EcoAnalytics
The poll carried out for the newspaper El Tiempo gives a technical tie between Petro and Hernández, as follows:
Rodolfo Hernández — 46.1% of the voting intention.
Gustavo Petro — 43.3% of the voting intention.
Margin of error: 2.5%.
Fact sheet: The Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalytic Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS survey was carried out between June 1st and 4th, with 1,958 citizens.
Publication date: June 5, 2022.
Yanhass
In this research contracted by the RCN media network, it looked like this:
Gustavo Petro — 42%
Rodolfo Hernández — 41%
Blank vote — 13%
Don’t know/Didn’t answer — 5%
Fact Sheet: 1,234 face-to-face surveys in 60 municipalities across the country carried out between May 30 and June 3, 2022. Margin of error: 3.2%.
Publication date: June 5, 2022.
National Consulting Center
A poll by the National Consultancy Center for the Colombian newspaper CM& gives a technical tie in voting intentions between presidential candidates Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández.
Rodolfo Hernández — 41% in voting intentions
Gustavo Petro — 39% in voting intentions.
Blank vote: 5%
Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 14%.
1% of those polled would not vote for any, according to the results.
Fact sheet: 1,200 surveys in 43 municipalities in Colombia between May 30 and 31, 2022.
Margin of error: 2.8% and 95% confidence.
Publication date: June 1, 2022.
According to these latest polls, and if electoral patterns are followed, Hernández is stronger than Petro in regions such as the Coffee Region and Antioquia (54% vs. 26%); east-central (51% vs. 23%) and south-central (46% vs. 34%).
Petro, on the other hand, has an advantage over Hernández in Bogotá (49% vs. 39%); in the Caribbean region (48% vs. 33%) and the Colombian Pacific (57% vs. 23%).
In the demographics of the polls, inhabitants of the higher income strata would vote more for Rodolfo Hernández than Gustavo Petro (52% vs. 40%), while those in the middle strata prefer Petro. Among the lower strata respondents there is a technical tie: 40% Hernández vs. 39% Petro).
Left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro won the most votes in the first round with just over 8.5 million in favour. Hernández, who calls himself an ‘outsider’ and has gained traction in the weeks leading up to the elections, won 5.9 million votes, beating better-known candidates like Federico Gutiérrez and Sergio Fajardo.
Source: CNN Brasil
