Pollution responsible for global warming will reach the highest level ever, dashing hopes that it would start to fall in 2024.
Global rates of pollution from fossil fuels, responsible for warming the planet, will reach record levels this year, according to new projections, dashing hopes that they will stabilize or fall by 2024.
According to the report, pollution caused by fossil fuels is expected to rise to 37.4 billion metric tons this year, an increase of 0.8% compared to 2023. The forecast indicates that global emissions from coal, oil and gas will increase.
The news comes as global leaders gather at the UN COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.
This year is “virtually certain” to be the hottest on record, with back-to-back hurricanes, catastrophic floods, devastating typhoons and severe droughts.
“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, but we still see no sign that the burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, climate professor at the University of Exeter, who led the study, published on Tuesday (12) by the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of scientists.
While fossil fuels make up the majority of planet-warming pollution, the other main source is land use change, including deforestation.
These emissions are also expected to increase, according to the report, exacerbated by this year’s severe droughts and fires.
Some news was more positive: Emissions in the US and Europe are expected to decline, while China’s emissions are slowing, and could even decline this year, according to the research. But this progress ends up being offset by increases in most of the rest of the world, such as India.
Total global climate pollution will reach 41.6 billion metric tons this year, up from 40.6 billion metric tons last year, according to the report.
The increase may not seem significant, but it puts the world off the path to tackling the climate crisis.
A UN report published in October said global carbon emissions were slowly stabilizing and raised the possibility they could fall this year.
Fossil fuel pollution needs to be cut by roughly half over this decade to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold that countries have pledged to try to keep below in the Paris climate agreement.
Earth temperature
Climate change has caused catastrophic impacts. But scientists warn that, above 1.5 degrees, it begins to exceed the adaptation capacity of humans and the natural world, including the possibility of triggering devastating climate tipping points.
Humanity has already experienced 12-month periods above this critical climate threshold, but scientists are more concerned about longer time frames. The study estimates that at current emissions rates, there is a 50% chance of the world exceeding 1.5 degrees consistently within about six years.
Some companies and governments have emphasized carbon removal as a key way to reduce global temperatures, but current technology is only removing about one millionth of the carbon pollution produced by fossil fuels, according to the report.
“Time is running out,” said Friedlingstein, adding that ‘world leaders meeting at COP29 must make rapid and deep cuts in fossil fuel emissions.’
This content was originally published in Pollution that warms the planet should reach record levels, says study on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
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