Polymarket cryptocurrency rates on the probability of the start of the US recession in 2025 sharply increased after the release of data on a decrease in American GDP. The probability of the event is estimated by the participants of the crypto service at 67%, writes RBC Crypto.
This is the highest indicator from the moment of launch of the pool at the beginning of the year. The volume of bets in it is $ 3.8 million.
Polymarket is the largest decentralized forecast market. Users make bets on the outcome of events by buying “yes” or “no” tokens for cryptocurrencies. The price of token reflects the probability of an event: if “yes” costs $ 0.20, then the chance is estimated at 20%. The victorious tokens bring $ 1, the losers are reset.
According to the results of the first quarter, the US GDP decreased for the first time since 2022, Bloomberg said. The indicator decreased by 0.3% in annual calculus. The reasons for this are called the increase in imports before the introduction of tariffs and a decrease in consumer expenses, which, in turn, was caused by the trade policy of US President Donald Trump.
The S&P 500 index opened with a decrease, and the profitability of the US Treasury has fallen. In his social network, Truth Social Trump said that the US economy would “take time” to prove the effectiveness of the current policy, and accused Joe Bayden of the fall market of his predecessor:
“This is the Biden stock market, not Trump. Duties will soon begin to enter into force, and companies begin to return to the United States with a record pace. Our country will experience a boom, but we need to get rid of Biden’s Heritage. It will take time and has nothing to do with duties – he just left us bad indicators. But when the boom begins, it will be as ever before. Be patient! ” – wrote Trump.
100 days have passed since the inauguration of Trump on January 20, during which he made a number of changes regarding the cryptocurrency industry. Trump changed the heads of key regulators, demanded to accelerate the development and introduction of clear rules for the digital assets market, and also initiated the creation of a state reserve of bitcoins.
According to Polymarket participants, the probability of creating a national bitcoin reserve in the United States this year is 45%. The minimum was 38%, a maximum of 77%. For forecasts on this event, players delivered $ 2.7 million.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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