The currency strategists of UOB Group noted that the EUR / USD could fall to the 1.1910 zone in the coming weeks.
24 hour perspective: “We highlighted yesterday that conditions were still oversold and the risk of the EUR breaking the main support at 1.2000 was not high. Our view was incorrect as the euro broke below 1.2000 and fell to 1.1956. The sharp and rapid decline seems exaggerated, but a further weakness of the EUR is not ruled out. However, the next major support at 1.1910 is probably out of reach for now (there is a minor support at 1.1935). The resistance is at 1.2000 followed by 1.2020 “.
Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected the EUR to weaken since last week. In our last update on Wednesday (Feb 3, even at 1.2040), we noted that as long as the strong resistance at 1.2105 was not broken; a breakout of 1.2000 would not be surprising and would open the way for the EUR to move lower to 1.1965. The EUR broke 1.2000 yesterday (Feb 4) and fell to 1.1956. The momentum is still strong and further EUR weakness towards the next major support at 1.1910 looks likely. All in all, the current weak phase of the EUR is considered intact as long as it does not move above 1.2055 (previously ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.2105). “
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