US President Joe Biden predicted on Wednesday that Russia “will attack” Ukraine, citing existential concerns from US President Vladimir Putin, even as he warned of significant economic consequences should that occur.
This Thursday (20), foreign ministers from France, Germany and the United States meet to discuss the tension between Kiev and Moscow.
In an interview with CNN, the professor and coordinator of the FAAP’s International Relations course, Fernanda Magnotta, warned that the possibility of confrontation is real.
She explains that the potential Russian invasion is motivated by the possibility of Ukraine being incorporated into NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which is a major western military alliance.
“On the Russian side, there is an attempt at pressure and a possibility of invasion to get American and European allies to give up Ukraine within NATO – and other ex-Soviet members in that kind of alliance. The West will react to this possibility of conflict”, he declared.
The professor explains that this impending conflict is not a novelty brought about by 2022, but a situation that has been escalating since the Crimea Crisis in 2014.
“Since then, there has been a burst of mutual aggression between these actors. It is a historical process that drags on, and it reached its peak in December of last year”, he comments.
At the end of 2021, news began to emerge – later confirmed – that there were 100,000 Russian soldiers near the country’s border with Ukraine, which raised the suspicion of an invasion.
The professor explains that the Russians demand that there be some form of legal guarantee that former members of the Soviet Union will not be accepted into the Western military alliance. “They want to prevent the advance of NATO”, he points out.
“Furthermore, the Putin administration has presented the demand for the removal of nuclear weapons from the United States that are positioned in Europe”, he adds.
For Fernanda Magnotta, a way to ease this moment would be, either the Russians accept to vacate the border and retreat from the possibility of attacking Kiev, or the NATO allies meet Russian demands.
“I don’t think it’s the case for either of them. The Russians do not seem willing to back down, nor are the Americans and Europeans going to give in to pressure”, he warned.
Reference: CNN Brasil
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