Completion of Proof: The content published on the “Jacaré de Tanga” profile on Facebook is misleading to raise suspicions about the credibility of election polls. In the post, photos of demonstrations in support of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – both in the dispute for the Palácio do Planalto – appear along with the data of voting intentions of each of them in the latest survey released by Datafolha. The disinformation content is accompanied by the caption “The best research remains DataPovo”, in an attempt to mock the data obtained in the survey.
Using photos with a small number of people in demonstrations, the post suggests that Lula has low popularity with the Brazilian electorate, which is not true. Until now, PT appears in first place in polls of voting intentions for president, which use scientific methods to eliminate biases. In addition, the images related to Bolsonaro are from events with the president’s participation. While Lula’s, at the time of the photographic record, the PT was not present. The comparison, therefore, proves to be wrong.
The consultations with the electorate record a clipping of the moment in which the interviews were carried out and not a prediction of the future. Until the elections, changes can occur in the electoral scenario and a candidate, who currently appears in the preference, can leave that position. Currently, according to a survey by the Estadão which aggregates results from electoral polls, Lula leads by 46% to 30% over Bolsonaro.
For Comprova, misleading it is content taken from the original context and used in another so that its meaning is altered; that uses inaccurate data or that leads to an interpretation different from the author’s intention; content that confuses, with or without the deliberate intent to cause harm.
Scope of publication: Comprova investigates the most far-reaching suspicious content on social networks. Until July 1st, the content published by the deputy had more than 2,300 shares, 6,600 likes and 1,600 comments.
What the author of the publication says: Comprova tried to contact the owner of the profile “O jacaré de tanga”, which has more than 940 thousand followers on Facebook. We had no response as of the publication of this check.
As the post was also shared by federal deputy José Medeiros (PL), who is the deputy leader of the Bolsonaro government in the Chamber, we seek a position from the parliamentarian. Sought, through his press office, he stated that the target content of this check would be a meme. Medeiros added that there are surveys that show other scenarios in the first round, and shared the most recent one made by the Instituto Futura for Banco Modal, in which Lula and Bolsonaro are tied. However, even in this survey, the PT wins in the second round.
How do we check: Initially, we tried to locate, through the reverse search from Google, all the images contained in the publication targeted by this check to see if the demonstrations actually took place. We separated photo by photo and each one was inserted in the search engine. To do so, in the images section, the report clicked on a camera symbol and uploaded the photos. Also used was Google Lens to search the images.
To understand the context of each photo, we still resort to reports published in the press (wow, G1, Estadão, Brazilian Mail, State of Mines).
We look for other verifications made by Comprova itself, also related to disinformation content and that repeatedly try to discredit the electoral polls (1, two, 3, 4, 5, 6).
Comprova also made contact with federal deputy José Medeiros, through his press office, and with the profile “O Jacaré de Tanga”, in a message on Facebook.
Research portrays reality of the moment
The post investigated here, when writing “DataPovo is the best poll!”, questions the credibility of polls for voting intentions. A similar stance adopted by federal deputy José Medeiros, when he inserted an excerpt from the song “Mentes so bem”, by Zezé di Camargo and Luciano, to the content shared on his Facebook profile.
Us comments, followers also discredit the surveys and even suggest that an eventual victory for Lula in this year’s dispute would be the result of a “fraud at the polls”. Another follower adds: “Shame on these manipulated polls, the left will blow the ballot box. It is the only way for her to return to power.”
As Comprova recently showedelectoral polls use scientific methods to ascertain the reality of the moment with representative segments of the Brazilian electorate in general.
In an interview with Brazil Agency, the executive director of Ipec (formerly Ibope Intelligence), Marcia Cavallari, explained that “the objective of an electoral survey is not to anticipate the results of the election, but rather to show the scenario at the moment it was carried out. ” According to Cavallari, “the poll is a snapshot of the moment and has neither the power nor the intention to predict the outcome of an election. Therefore, their results cannot be used to predict the outcome of the polls.”
In addition, a check published by Estadão on June 30, reinforces that the research institutes carry out a sample planning, in which the municipalities and census sectors where the interviews will be carried out are randomly selected. This occurs, according to Felipe Nunes, professor at the Department of Political Science at the University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) to ensure that the criterion for participation of the interviewee in the research is random, without external interference that could generate bias.
The last survey carried out by Datafolha showed a stable scenario in the country’s presidential race. Between June 22nd and 23rd, 2,556 voters were interviewed in 181 Brazilian cities. The research was contracted by Folha de S. Paulo and is registered with the TSE under number 09088/2022. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.
Former President Lula appeared 19 points ahead of Jair Bolsonaro, totaling 47% of voting intentions in the first round. The current president was mentioned by 28% of the interviewees and had a large advantage over the third place, the former governor of Ceará Ciro Gomes (PDT), who obtained 8% of the electorate’s preference.
Photos used in the post are from different manifestations
The author of the post montage uses different moments of demonstrations for and against Bolsonaro to support the thesis that the preference of the electorate is not being reproduced by polls.
In the first photo related to Lula, the protest was not exactly in favor of the former president, but against the current president of the country. Entitled “Bolsonaro Never More”, it was carried out by social movements and unions on April 9, 2022 in several Brazilian cities. In the photo reproduced in the post, it is about the demonstration in Joinville, Santa Catarina, and the low adherence in the municipality of Santa Catarina had already been the target of irony of government allies such as Luciano Hang. On the same day, however, there was more mobilization in other parts of the country, such as Sao Paulo.
THE third image it is in fact a pro-Lula act and was held on May 1 of this year, Labor Day, in São Paulo. Organized by the trade union centrals, it took place throughout the day at Charles Miller square, in the center of São Paulo, and had the participation of the former president, who gave a speech in the afternoon.
Reports indicated that there was low adherence to the movement that day, but not just in support of the PT. Bolsonaro too faced the situation.
Unlike the photos attributed to pro-Lula acts, in which only one demonstration registered the presence of the former president, all the images that portray support for Bolsonaro in the post have the president’s participation.
The second photo is of a motorcycle in São Paulo held on June 12, 2021, that is, more than a year ago. O act was recorded on social networks by the president himself. Comprova has already demonstrated more than once (1, two) the use of old images by Bolsonaro supporters to inflate his popularity and question the credibility of this year’s election polls.
The last Image reproduces motociata held on June 11 this year in Orlando, United States. The act brought together approx. 350 supporters Bolsonaro, as reported by Folha.
The second photo referring to Lula and the first of Bolsonaro were not found in the reverse search and Google Lens searches in professional vehicle reports so that it was possible to identify the context of the record, such as location, date and circumstances.
Attacks on research have increased
Following Bolsonaro’s narrative, the president’s followers often attack election polls, in an attempt to undermine the credibility of consultations with the population that, so far, have indicated Lula’s advantage in the presidential race.
The cases have become more frequent and, to contain the misinformation, Comprova repeatedly makes articles to demonstrate the problem (1, two, 3, 4, 5, 6). also already explained that the research uses scientific methods to arrive at the published result.
It is also worth mentioning that Brazilian legislation provides for all surveys to be registered with the Electoral Court, detailing, among other information, the methodology used, the sample, the data of the responsible professional and even who hired the survey. Everything is available for consultation at TSE website.
why do we investigate: Comprova checks suspicious content about the pandemic, public policies and elections that have gone viral. Electoral polls are essential tools for analyzing the country’s political context. The attempt to discredit them diminishes people’s trust in research institutes, hinders the perception of reality and influences the vote in the wrong way.
Other checks on the topic:
Recently, Comprova showed that post deceives by using a case in Rio Grande do Norte to take away the credibility of electoral pollsWhat other post local exchange of act against Lula to discredit pollswhat Video makes misleading claims to cast doubt on election poll credibility is that audio about survey fraud is by a comedian, not a former director of Datafolha.
Investigated by: A Gazeta, CBN Cuiabá and Imirante.com. Verified by: Folha de S. Paulo, O Dia, Correio de Carajás, O Estado de S. Paulo and Plural Curitiba.
Source: CNN Brasil
