Once seen as a likely successor to Iran's Supreme Leader, President Ebrahim Raisi has died in office, leaving the Islamic Republic's hardline establishment facing an uncertain future.
An ultra-conservative president, Raisi, 63, was killed on Sunday (19), along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other senior officials, in a helicopter crash in remote northwestern Iran.
His death comes at a delicate time for a country facing unprecedented challenges internally and externally.
The Islamic Republic's economy continues to be hampered by American sanctions, its young population is becoming increasingly restive, and the country faces increasingly belligerent adversaries in the Middle East and beyond.
Raisi's death “will trigger elections at a time when the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) is at the nadir of its legitimacy and at the height of its exclusionary policies,” said Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the think tank International Crisis Group, on X.
Who assumes the presidency?
Power has now been transferred to Mohammad Mokhber, who served as Raisi's vice president and was approved on Monday as interim president by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the final arbiter of internal and external affairs in the Islamic Republic.
Not as well-known as Raisi, Mokhber is “another administrator,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, told Becky Anderson of CNN .
“He is close to the IRGC [Exército dos Guardiães da Revolução Islâmica]close to the levers of power,” said Vakil, adding that he is likely to present a “business as usual” model in the coming days.
But the country must, by law, hold elections within the next 50 days. On Monday, Iranian state news outlet IRNA said Iran's presidential elections will take place on Friday, June 28.
Candidates can register from May 30 to June 3, and the campaign will run from June 12 until the morning of June 27, he added.
Experts say the elections are likely to be hastily organized with low voter turnout. In March, Iran recorded the lowest voter turnout since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979, despite the government's efforts to rally voters ahead of the election.
That vote – for seats in parliament, or Majles, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts, charged with choosing the Supreme Leader – attracted mostly hard-line politicians.
“The general population has lost faith in the idea that change can come through the ballot box,” wrote Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, D.C., on Sunday in the X.
The March elections also banned the candidacy of more moderate politicians – including former President Hassan Rouhani, once a strong regime – narrowing the small circle of hardliners to continue the Supreme Leader's conservative rule after his death.
“Real alternatives to Iran’s radicals were simply not allowed to run for public office in the last elections,” Parsi said on X, adding that “these alternatives, in the eyes of the majority of the population, have lost credibility anyway, due to the failure to deliver change.”
Until the Supreme Leader is replaced, however, few changes are likely to occur following Raisi's death, especially in foreign policy.
“It’s really the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard who make the final decisions, and even in the region, they primarily implement Iran’s regional policy,” Vaez said, adding that “overall we will see more continuity than change.”
What are the long-term implications of Raisi's death?
Raisi's death has raised questions about who will ultimately succeed Iran's supreme leader, 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's most powerful man.
The Iranian clerical establishment invested heavily in Raisi during his presidency, seeing him as a potential successor to Khamenei. Observers say he was groomed to be elevated to the position of Supreme Leader.
Raisi's death will create “a succession crisis in Iran,” wrote Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in X.
The late president maintained some of the regime's harshest policies, suppressing the 2022 mass protests that sought to challenge repressive laws such as the mandatory hijab.
According to the constitution, the Assembly of Experts, consisting of 88 members, chooses the Supreme Leader's successor upon his death. Members of the Assembly itself are, however, previously vetted by Iran's Guardian Council, a powerful 12-member body tasked with overseeing elections and legislation.
The Assembly of Experts has become increasingly tough over the years. In the March vote, Raisi was re-elected to the assembly and the Guardian Council banned Rouhani from running for a seat.
While there are procedures for selecting the Supreme Leader, succession discussions are always “very opaque,” Vakil said, adding that they take place “within a very close circle of individuals.”
Some have pointed to the current Supreme Leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a mid-level cleric, as a potential candidate for the top job, but that would be a change in the principles of the Islamic Republic, which overthrew a repressive monarchy in 1970 and prides itself on being for freeing itself from hereditary rule.
Allowing Mojtaba to replace his father could, however, encourage theories that Raisi's death was not accidental, Sadjadpour said.
Raisi's rivals should also try to fill the vacuum he leaves, Vaez said.
“This definitely throws any plans that the Supreme Leader's offices probably had out the window,” Vaez told Paula Newton of CNN .
He added, however, that Iran has no shortage of political actors who are “subservient and belong to the old guard of the Islamic Republic” who could replace Raisi.
How will this affect Iran's foreign relations?
Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian oversaw a turnaround in Iran's relations with its Arab neighbors, helping to normalize relations with longtime foe Saudi Arabia with help from China.
But they also saw the Islamic Republic launch a large-scale direct attack against Israel for the first time, following an alleged Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. This led Israel to launch an unprecedented retaliation, bringing to light the parallel war between the two nations.
Experts say Raisi's death is unlikely to have an impact on the regime's foreign policy, which is almost exclusively the domain of the Supreme Leader.
Iran's foreign policy is decided by the Supreme National Security Council and can be vetoed by the Supreme Leader, Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran expert and editor of the media outlet Amwaj.media, said Anderson of CNN .
“We will see continuity in terms of how Iran approaches regional archives and collaboration with regional allies.”
He added that a similar trajectory will likely be seen in the nuclear program.
Could the upcoming presidential elections bring changes to Iran?
Some experts say the elections represent an opportunity for the regime to bring back marginalized moderates.
While Khamenei is likely to maintain a conservative government, he has “always emphasized electoral participation as a litmus test of the legitimacy of the system,” Shabani said.
“These elections could be a watershed moment for Iran.”
Raisi came to power in elections that many Iranians considered a foregone conclusion. With moderate candidates eliminated, electoral participation was extremely low, highlighting the regime's diminished legitimacy.
“If the Supreme Leader decides to use these early elections as a decisive moment to open up the political space, to get people to vote again, that could be a big game changer,” Shabani said, adding that it would also impact the succession to the Supreme Court. Leader.
What are the funeral plans?
Multi-day funeral ceremonies for Raisi will begin on Tuesday in Tabriz and continue in Qom, Tehran and Mashhad, according to Mohsen Mansouri, head of Iran's funeral planning committee and vice president for executive affairs.
Speaking on state television on Monday, Mansouri said funeral prayers would begin in the northwestern city of Tabriz at 9:30 a.m. local time on Tuesday. There will be a procession from Tabriz Martyrs' Square to the Tabriz Mosallah (prayer hall).
Later this Tuesday, the bodies of the victims of the helicopter crash will be transferred to the Shiite holy city of Qom, where funeral prayers will take place at 4:30 pm local time outside the Fatima Masumeh Shrine.
Then, at night, the bodies will be transferred to the Mosallah Grand Mosque in Tehran, according to Mansouri.
On Wednesday, large ceremonies are planned in Tehran at the Grand Mosallah. One or two other ceremonies will be announced later, according to Mansouri.
On the morning of next Thursday (23), funeral prayers will begin in Birjand, South Khorasan province, where Raisi served as the Supreme Leader's representative.
Later on Thursday, Raisi's body will be transferred to the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will lead prayers over Raisi's body, according to Mehr News.
On Thursday night, Raisi's body will be buried in Mashhad, according to Mansouri.
Mansouri also announced the closure of offices on Wednesday across the country and said that governors of provinces where processions will take place can declare holidays on Wednesday.
(Tamara Qiblawi, from CNN contributed to this text)
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
