Markets expect the Fed to maintain rates without changes today. Recent data have surprised in a moderate direction, but the projections and the points graph will include more towards a hard line posture. The ‘hard’ data of the projections probably give a better signal of the Fed rates trajectory than the ‘soft’ data of Powell’s press conference, reports ABN Amro economist Rogier Quaedvlieg.
The Fed will keep the fees, but the points graph prepares for a change towards a hard line posture
“Tonight the Fed will keep the rates without changes. In the press conference, Powell will probably repeat the message of the last time: they will consider all the Trump administration policies on tariffs, immigration, fiscal policy and regulation when making their decisions, the only response to this level of uncertainty is to wait and see, and the Fed is well positioned to react in a timely manner. He pointed out that soft data were not enough to bring the Fed to make a decision, they needed hard data.
“During the first months of this year, inflation has surprised down, while the labor market has remained healthy. Non -agricultural payrols did not reach high expectations in the first months of the year, while marginally exceed Recent data suggest that Fed could move to a more moderate side, however, we expect the opposite. “
“The points graph and the previous projections come from an era prior to the day of release. In addition, only some of the members of the committee had incorporated tariffs implemented or expected in March. The day of release surprised with more extreme tariff Moderate, policy developments exceed these surprises for a wide margin.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
