Pro and anti-Trump Republicans agree on one point: he will be the nominee

The consensus at the Republican National Committee's 2024 winter meeting in Las Vegas this week was clear between the pro-Trump and anti-Trump wings: the former president will be the party's presidential nominee this year.

“Let's be honest about this. Trump will be the Republican Party's nominee unless something drastic happens in the next few months,” said Alabama Republican Party Chairman John Wahl. “And with that in mind, yes, obviously Democrats are already looking at the general election. They have already started campaigning against Donald Trump. Republicans are ready to get there, too.”

The trust among the 168-member body of the Republidano Party committee reflected the former president's dominance and lasting control over much of the party. Most members present said they supported Trump or pledged to support the party's eventual nominee. Few, if any, have publicly expressed support for Trump's last remaining rival, Nikki Haley.

“I would say that not only will he be the nominee, but that the committee is at least, if not more, pro-Trump than the average Republican,” said Michigan party committee member Rob Steele. Steele estimated that the 168-member body is now made up of 70% people who became committee chairs and have joined it since Trump was first nominated in 2016.

Even as Trump approaches the finish line of the Republican primaries after scoring victories in Iowa and New Hampshire last month, he still faces four criminal charges and is fighting a jury verdict in a civil defamation case. And Haley has vowed to stay in the race in her home state of South Carolina and beyond.

But members expressed confidence in how the primaries would unfold and what should happen afterward, as they also expressed a sense of urgency for the primaries to be concluded, even if only in name.

The dispute between Trump and Haley will come to a head in South Carolina on February 24. Haley and her team sought to shut down Trump's lead in the state, highlighting her record as governor and reminding voters of her roots in the state, and she sought to downplay the potential outcomes in the state.

But although South Carolina is Haley's home state, where she was twice elected to the highest office, polls show a lead for Trump. He has also been endorsed by several state politicians, including Senators Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott, Governor Henry McMaster, and Representative Nancy Mace. Trump and his team also made a point of scheduling fundraisers to undermine the momentum Haley had among donors.

At the winter meeting, Republican committee members and chairmen repeatedly expressed the desire for the South Carolina primary to take place and for an undisputed candidate to emerge.

“I think the process points out how it’s going to play out, but I think it’s all going to get resolved sooner or later,” Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Power said in an interview. “I think when you look at what will happen if the Democrats win. They can control everything. They will eliminate the obstruction. They will pack the Supreme Court. We need to come together and get involved in this shooting as quickly as possible.”

The prospect of Trump winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination while facing his criminal charges has hung over the party as the primaries draw to a close. Still, California Republican committeeman Shawn Steel dismissed the danger of this scenario for the party's ticket. Steel said Republicans should take comfort in the possibility that none of the major trials Trump faces will take place before the election.

“There is also the possibility to speculate that a meteorite shower would attack planet Earth and all of existence would undergo a sixth great extinction… which would not leave a mark on it,” Steel said. “But the good news is that with all these possibilities, the legal consensus is that none of these criminal trials will take place this year. That's a fact of life. A civil trial could – just happened – and that doesn’t have the same force and effect.”

That's a sentiment shared by many committee staff.

“Unfortunately, the legal issue is so far out of line that it amounts to election interference,” said Illinois Republican Committeeman Richard Porter. “The cases are generally ridiculous. So I don't think people will be persuaded by the merits of these cases.

Still, other members of the committee worry that the multiple lawsuits could divert attention from holding the election to Biden's record.

“We would like the election to be a referendum on Biden’s failed presidency, but if we nominate Donald Trump, it will be about him and not Biden,” said Henry Barbour, a committee member from Mississippi.

Throughout the meeting, the target of open frustration over Republicans' election problems or fundraising numbers was shifted away from Trump — to the frustration of some people.

Throughout the meeting, the target of open frustration over Republicans' election problems or fundraising numbers was diverted from Trump — to the frustration of some members.

“The criticism in general (of committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel) comes from the Trumpers,” said Bill Palatucci, a committee member from New Jersey who has sometimes clashed with more pro-Trump Republicans. “To me it’s very hypocritical and ironic that Ronna is accepting criticism.”

Meeting highlights

With the primary largely decided by committee members, concerns during the four-day meeting focused on other topics. Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has made a point lately of trying to steer the party toward a better handle on abortion, following a series of losses for the party in the post-Roe global outcry.

The theme of the meeting was not to bet on the next presidential elections. Some committee members received fake committee poker chips and letters that said “Do not bet on the outcome… Carefully Checked Rules [sic] are the safest bet.”

At the committee's winter meeting, the chairwoman aired three attack ads from Democrats on abortion to preview what Republicans should expect next year on the issue. She reiterated points she had made recently, including that supporting a blanket abortion ban without exceptions would spell doom for candidates, according to a source familiar with McDaniel's comments. Republican candidates and campaigns needed to work on defining themselves early on abortion, rather than letting Democrats do it, she said.

The meeting also highlighted how the pro-Trump wing has created conflicts within the party. The ongoing dispute between different factions of the state Republican Party was widely publicized this week when Kristina Karamo, the ousted chairwoman of the Michigan Republican Party, and her replacement, former ambassador Pete Hoekstra, were both accredited as guests. None of them were fully recognized as official presidents or were able to vote like other presidents.

Critics among RNC committee staff also took aim at McDaniel's handling of the organization's budget and finances. This frustration came to a head with the vote on a resolution that attempted to add stipulations about what could go into the committee's budget – a move designed to handcuff the president. That resolution decisively failed, according to one Republican present.

Party leaders have become increasingly vocal in their condemnation of the committee's conservative critics and whether it is prepared for the toughest months of the 2024 election cycle. When Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo gave a speech on Thursday (1st ), he made a point of saying he had no patience “with actors taking misleading shots at the committee” and highlighted the “critical role the committee played in his election,” according to a Republican who watched that speech.

Lombardo, who handed over control of the Nevada governor's palace in 2022, emphasized in his speech the importance of matching a campaign's message to the state or district in which the campaign is running, according to another Republican who participated in his speech at the winter committee meeting.

“He was basically saying everyone needs to stop complaining and beat the Democrats,” said a committee member who watched the speech.