Professor of Political Systems: “We should have appreciated the intervention – It is unknown how Russia will move from now on”

H Russia’s intervention in Ukraine Today at dawn the whole planet is frozen since the war has taken on flesh and blood and is in full swing. The first question that is heard today is whether the West was finally waiting for this intervention or whether it was as it is called a “shock”, since until yesterday the voices that spoke of a diplomatic solution were loud.

«We should have appreciated this operation “Russia’s moves and interventions in Abkhazia, Georgia, Moldova, Crimea have preceded in the past,” he told Newsbeast. Manos PapazoglouAssistant Professor of Political Systems at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Peloponnese and adds: “It has long seemed that Russia is trying to create a sphere and a security indicator around it. In terms of predicting events, the Americans were better at this. For example, for years they have been emphasizing the issue of energy security by constantly saying pas Europe is highly dependent on Russia. Germany is a very good example of how much it believed as a country that we would have gas from Russia and everything would be fine. They did not take into account that Russia is one player unpredictable.

So why could not we see what is happening now? Because Russia is a very closed decision-making center. It does not have the institutional dimensions of foreign security policy in America, for example, in Europe, etc.. “Russia can not be felt in the field of its foreign policy, so we can not fully understand how it will work in the end.”

How Russia is expected to move from now on

According to Mr. Papazoglou, the extent and duration of this official war is also not easy to predict, nor the exact goal of Russia. As he tells us: “In a landscape like that of Ukraine with many plains, the penetration of the Russian army will not be difficult. But we still do not fully know Russia’s goal. If the goal is to dominate Russian troops in the eastern provinces, this will be easier. If for some reason Putin wants to set up a fence around the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, that’s something different. But we do not know that. What we do know is that Putin wants to create a regime that will be controlled by Russia, he may want to get the guarantee that Ukraine will give up its thoughts on NATO. His goal is for the country to enter a situation similar to that which took place during the period of Russian rule in the countries of Eastern Europe. Let us not forget that he has already done this with Belarus, where he created a pro-Russian regime there.

In short: it is unknown how the Russians will move. At the same time, issues are being raised for other neighboring countries such as Moldova or Finland, which are also extremely concerned. “This does not mean that Putin will try to enter these countries, but the Russian president makes it clear that he is going to create a security zone around his country.”

The plight of Ukraine

What is certain, according to Mr. Papazoglou, is what will happen in Ukraine it will be very bad for the country and it will take it decades back. As he underlines: “Apart from the catastrophes that will occur, Ukraine will also enter into a great political vortex with a high probability that the regime there will be completely destabilized. We are talking about a regime that is not characterized as democratic anyway. “The country was left behind by other former Soviet countries and what is happening will take it even further.”

The professor also notes that from an operational point of view, Ukraine will be left alone in this war. As Mr. Papazoglou emphasizes:

“Military assistance to Ukraine is not appropriate. Westerners can not enter this field and if they did we would be talking about a serious escalation, much larger than these two countries, an escalation that would be ultimately uncontrollable. And of course, there are no NATO commitments in this case. Unfortunately, Ukraine’s geographical location is in itself a disadvantage as Russia, which borders it, would never give up trying to control it. “But the Russian president’s statement that this is an ‘artificial state’ is a clear manipulation of history.”

The future of Russia-West relations

As for the relations between Russia and the West, according to Mr. Papazoglou, in the medium term they will be very strained, especially the relations between Russia and Europe, which had reached a relatively good situation in recent years, although as the professor emphasizes, they were balanced on a tightrope.

“There are mutual interests”, Mr. Papazoglou emphasizes and continues: “Europe wants gas, Russia imports other goods from us. What will happen, then, will draw a clear red line between liberal democracy as expressed in Europe and regimes such as Russia and Turkey, which seek to impose themselves by military force in violation of all notions of international law. What is happening will burden both energy costs and our energy security, as well as the overall economic relationship between Europe and Russia.. Let us not forget that too many Russian oligarchs have invested in various parts of Europe.

So there is a huge asymmetry between Russia’s military power which is of course a huge force, but in contrast to its economic power which is not strong. Russia has lower GDP for example than Spain and Italy. This asymmetry is currently creating a negative legacy for Putin, undermining Russia’s long-term economic prospects. “Russia will be hit much harder than the sanctions announced at the moment, and distrust of Russian interests, both private and other trade deals and relations, will be immediate.”