Proposals do not guarantee reduction in the final price of fuel, says expert

In an interview with CNNthis Saturday (12), FGV IBRE associate researcher Juliana Damasceno commented on the proposals discussed in the National Congress to reduce fuel prices.

For the specialist, the projects that have been discussed so far “are not safe, as they do not guarantee the final effect on the price for consumers”, she said.

Damasceno recalled that the pricing policy adopted by Petrobras “depends on two factors. The first is the exchange rate and the second is the price of a barrel of oil on the international market”.

According to the expert, both factors are difficult to change. “The exchange rate still responds to our internal policy, whether fiscal or more comprehensive. However, the price of oil is not controllable,” she said.

Damasceno warned that, due to the pressures on the international scenario, the expectation is that the price of oil will reach US$ 100 for each barrel.

For her, another important point is the way in which the proposals are being thought. “For 2022, the government already forecasts a deficit of almost R$ 80 billion. Therefore, when we are predicting that we will have no money in the box and with expenses above income, we cannot think of an exemption, we will only be accentuating the problem”.

The expert pointed out that “when we don’t point out a new source of revenue or we don’t cut spending to promote a tax waiver, we are creating debt. This debt will be issued with increasingly higher interest rates, as the deterioration of the fiscal scenario is priced by agents that demand higher interest rates. There is then an extra bill to pay,” she said.

Finally, Damasceno stated that the exchange rate “only increases if the country does not demonstrate fiscal responsibility. Every time we issue more expensive debt, we are increasing the cost of policy. We are going into debt to support the cost of politics,” he concluded.