Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden tend to lose out if tensions between Russia and Ukraine on the border turn into armed conflict, a subject that should guide the virtual meeting between the two leaders this Tuesday (7). The outbreak could mean a retreat in trade relations between countries and allies.
The interpretation is by the professor of international relations and economics at ESPM Leonardo Trevisan, who spoke to CNN this Tuesday morning.
For Trevisan, war is an unlikely scenario as both military powers would lose out. “Putin and Biden have to lose if they go beyond merely diplomatic issues,” says the professor.
Russia has deployed some 175,000 troops on the Ukrainian border since a recent drone attack on pro-Russian separatist militants living in the region. Since then, tensions have been mounting and Ukraine has even said that Russia would cross the border next January, which Russia denies.
The United States has signaled with the distribution of new weapons to Ukraine and has threatened Russia with economic sanctions if a conflict breaks out in the region.
The sanctions being considered by the US government include Russia’s withdrawal from a payment system used by Russian producers to market oil, Trevisan says.
The system known as Swift (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) works as a kind of Pix, which streamlines international transactions through a messaging system. The United States has already removed North Korea from the platform.
“The Russians felt that the Americans are speaking more seriously, this does not mean that Putin is cornered, he is as firm as Biden”, assesses Trevisan.
The sanctions, if implemented, would affect the Russian oil oligarchy, close to President Putin. On the other hand, it would please the American elite, concerned with the hegemonic position of the United States in the world, points out the professor.
For Biden, the action could make his life easier in the main clashes at home, in Congressional votes and in mid-term elections, in 2022.
On the other hand, Russia could block gas supplies to Europe during the winter, which would make it very difficult to heat the homes of many of the US allies, who are fundamentally dependent on Russian gas production. The measure would aggravate the already delicate energy crisis.
In addition, the 10 million barrels of oil that Russia produces a day give the country the possibility of interfering in the growth of Western nations in the face of an eventual increase in the price of the commodity.
Reference: CNN Brasil
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