CIA Director Bill Burns warned on Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has gambled heavily on the second phase of his war in Ukraine and believes that “doubling down” the military conflict is still his best way forward.
It’s this mindset, Burns said, that makes the second phase of the offensive at least as risky — and perhaps even riskier — than the first phase of the conflict.
“He’s in a frame of mind where he doesn’t believe he can afford to lose,” Burns said of Putin during a Financial Times event in Washington. “I think he’s convinced now that doubling up will still allow him to progress.”
“His convictions about Ukraine and the reality of Russia’s ability to continue fighting the Ukrainian resistance – I don’t know if that has already been shaken,” he added. “So the stakes are quite high.”
This view is informed by what Burns said he has observed about Putin in recent years.
“What I’ve seen, especially in the last decade, is him kind of seething in a very flammable combination of grievances and ambition and insecurity all kind of wrapped up,” he said.
Burns also said the risk of the war escalating into a nuclear conflict should not be underestimated during the second phase, even if the US intelligence community does not see “practical evidence at this point in Russian planning for the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.” ”.
“Given the kind of agitation we hear from the Russian leadership, we cannot ignore these possibilities,” Burns said. “At a time when the stakes are very high for Putin’s Russia and these risks in this second phase of the conflict are serious and should not be underestimated.”
Branches outside of Russia
Burns also said Russia’s conflict in Ukraine has affected China’s calculations when it comes to “how and when” to try to take control of Taiwan.
“Clearly the Chinese leadership is trying to carefully analyze the lessons they should learn from Ukraine about their own ambitions in Taiwan,” Burns said.
“I don’t think it has eroded Xi’s resolve over time to gain control over Taiwan, but I think it’s something that is affecting their calculations of how and when they are going to do that,” he added.
Source: CNN Brasil
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