Putin is playing the ‘crazy card’ in Ukraine

By Michael Krepon

Vladimir Putin on Sunday ordered the defense minister and the chief of the General Staff to put the Russian nuclear forces on a state of “high alert”. We would say that this is a nuclear deterrent move of the “crazy”. Putin has expressed his desire to do something paranoid, that is, to use nuclear weapons to force the West to withdraw its support for Ukraine.

The “theory of madness” only works when the one who threatens convinces that he is also insane. Some believe Putin’s a “glove” to fit that description. Yes, the Russian president is capable of judging completely wrong – and he is not alone. This does not mean, however, that he has lost his sanity. After all, he has come this far with his method and cunning.

His threats through nuclear weapons show that the military operation to secure a submissive neighbor in his “backyard” is not developing as he would like. If he has not lost his mind, he understands this. Putin also knows that if he does not prevail over the overwhelming superiority of his conventional weapons, he will not succeed with the “mushrooms” either. On the contrary, the use of nuclear weapons will tarnish him as one of the most disgusting personalities in world history.

Russia is already outraged because it has chosen to wage an aggressive war of choice against Ukraine – the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of which Putin’s predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, has vowed to respect. In exchange for these security guarantees, Ukraine allowed Russia to recover the nuclear weapons it left behind after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In addition, Kyiv dismantled or returned to Russia the means of delivery of nuclear weapons. In return, Ukraine received the necessary diplomatic and financial support to become a newly independent state. As Moscow retained the know-how to use the remaining nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil and Kyiv did not have the financial resources or know-how to maintain these weapons and their means of delivery, neutrality was a sensible choice in the post-Cold War era. time.

When Putin succeeded Yeltsin and George W. Bush pushed for NATO enlargement to include the former members of the Warsaw Pact as well as the three Baltic states, it marked the first bell for Ukraine’s future. When Bush strongly supported Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance and NATO reluctantly agreed, the “bell” sounded the alarm.

The Ukrainians then ousted a pro-Russian government and reaffirmed their pro-Western orientation. Putin reacted strongly: he created separatist pockets in eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea. Now he wants a submissive government, believing that tanks and threats to use nuclear weapons are stronger than economic sanctions and popular resistance.

The good news is that Putin can not win this war. The bad news is that it can flatten the cities of Ukraine. It escalates their attack by dropping cluster bombs and rockets on residential areas. The worst may be ahead of us. The more Putin tries to win by brute force, the deeper the Russian economy will collapse and his troops will be confronted with better-equipped resistance forces.

We do not know how long it will take Putin to acknowledge his defeat and how many deaths he will cause by then. Are they really insane? Would it give the “green light” for the use of nuclear weapons? And how could the US respond effectively to these threats?

Putin’s “paranoid trick” raises a nuclear ghost hovering over this war. However, it is a deliberate move. Putin is threatening to get what he wants. The nuclear threat is not limited to phobic reactions to the Russian president’s threats. We must continue to support the Ukrainian people by sending military, financial and humanitarian aid.

Placards depicting Putin with Adolf Hitler’s mustache have already been erected at various anti-war demonstrations. If the Russian president uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, he will become “the Hitler of the next generations”. The use of nuclear weapons against NATO would be tantamount to Hitler’s suicide in Berlin. Putin’s connection to Hitler may be exaggerated, but it is useful: one way to prevent Putin’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is to overemphasize how future generations will view this crime.

The United States is talking about nuclear deterrence, and Putin should be able to listen to them. The Biden administration’s soft-spoken but decisive response to Putin’s nuclear threats is flawless – at least for now, as we watch the Russian president play a losing hand.

Read also:

* Putin has changed the world when it comes to nuclear weapons

* Ukrainian crisis will trigger “shocks” in nuclear arsenals