Russian President Vladimir Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine on May 9, a move that would allow for the full deployment of Russia’s reserve forces as invasion efforts continue to fail, US and Western officials believe.
The date of May 9, known as “Victory Day” in Russia, commemorates the defeat of the Nazis in the country in 1945. Western officials believe that Putin would take advantage of the symbolic significance and propaganda value of the day to announce a military conquest in Ukraine. , a major escalation of hostilities – or both.
Officials have started to focus on one scenario, in which Putin officially declares war on Ukraine on May 9. So far, the Russian president insists on calling the conflict a “special military operation”, refusing to use words like “invasion” and “war”.
“I think he’s going to try to get out of his ‘special operation,'” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told LBC radio last week. , and what I need is more people’”.
Throughout the conflict, Putin has continually framed his invasion of Ukraine – a country with a Jewish president – as a campaign of alleged “denazification”, a description rejected by historians and political observers.
Wallace added that “I wouldn’t be surprised, and I have no information about it, that he will likely declare this May Day that ‘we are now at war with the Nazis of the world and we need to mobilize the Russian people en masse’.”
A formal declaration of war on May 9 could bolster public support for the invasion. It would also, under Russian law, allow Putin to deploy reserve forces, which experts say Russia desperately needs amid a growing labor shortage.
Western and Ukrainian officials estimate that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the war.
“Anemic” Effort on the Battlefield
After a series of military and logistical setbacks, Moscow is focusing its efforts on the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, which has been at the forefront of the Russia-Ukraine conflict since 2014.
But a US official on Monday described the Russian war effort as “anemic”.
“They will go in and declare victory, and then withdraw their troops, only to let the Ukrainians take it back,” the official told reporters at a Pentagon briefing.
The official said the problems that plagued the Russian military from the very beginning had not been fixed. “They still suffer from weak command and control, low morale in many units, suboptimal logistics,” he said.
Russian forces also want to avoid risks that could lead to more casualties for their already depleted forces, the official said, describing the ground war in the area as “very cautious, very tepid”.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces were making significant progress in pushing the Russians back around Kharkiv, on the northwestern tip of the Donbas region, the official said.
“An incredible effort that, again, hasn’t gotten a lot of headlines and hasn’t received a lot of attention, but it’s just another piece of the tough Ukrainian resistance they continue to demonstrate.”
Other Putin Options for May 9
With less than a week to go until May 9th Victory Day, Moscow can look to places other than Donbas for a statement.
Other options include annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, making a big push for Odesa in the south or declaring full control over the port city of Mariupol.
The US has “highly credible” intelligence reports that Russia will attempt to annex Luhansk and Donetsk “sometime in mid-May,” US OSCE Ambassador Michael Carpenter said on Monday.
There are also indications that Russia could be planning to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson.
US State Department spokesman Ned Price said there is “good reason to believe the Russians will do everything they can to use” May 9 for propaganda purposes.
“We’ve seen the Russians really double down on their propaganda efforts, probably as a means of distracting themselves from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine,” he said in a State Department briefing.
“I am quite confident that we will hear more from Moscow by May 9th,” Price added. “I am quite confident that you will hear more from the United States, from our partners, including our NATO partners, by May 9 as well.”
Source: CNN Brasil
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