With the Luhansk region under Russian control, Russian President Vladimir Putin can now focus on seizing the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine before offering a ceasefire, a defense policy analyst told CNBC.
“Putin may offer the possibility of a ceasefire, if only to give himself a chance to defend the gains he’s been able to make so far,” said Victor Abramowicz, director of Ostoya Consulting, which advises defense industry companies.
It is recalled that Putin congratulated his troops on Monday for “liberating” Luhansk province after several weeks of bloody fighting. A huge part of the region’s infrastructure, including homes, has been leveled while numerous deaths are reported.
Russian forces are now focused on capturing Donetsk, with the province under heavy shelling, according to local officials.
Difficult decision for Zelensky
Although the campaign did not turn out the way Moscow wanted, Abramowicz said, Russia seems “almost certainly” able to achieve its more limited goals in Donbass. If Putin then offers a ceasefire, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be in a difficult position, Abramowicz noted.
“There is no particular reason to believe that accepting a Russian ceasefire will actually lead to a lasting peace,” he said, adding that this would give Russia the ability to build up its troops and attack again in the future.
On the other hand, if Zelenskiy does not accept the ceasefire, it increases “the risk that he may lose some of the Western support that he relies on,” Abramowicz said, adding that the choice could be forced on him by Western leaders. .
And whether Zelensky would accept such a ceasefire depends on how much military and financial support he feels he can get from the West, he added.
The future of western support
Abramowicz said Western support to Ukraine would continue for at least six months to a year.
November’s midterm elections in the US, which is by far the largest donor of military and economic aid to Ukraine, will affect US support for Ukraine, Abramowicz said.
“You have to keep in mind that there is a lot of ‘war fatigue’ in the US, but the Americans also have huge resources that they can tie up for decades,” he said, adding that France, the UK and Germany have different estimates of the time period they are willing to support Ukraine.
Source: Capital
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