The ultimate goal of the president of the Russia, Vladimir Putinwith the invasion of Ukraine is to overthrow the current Ukrainian government and bring about regime change, according to the director for the Americas of the Eurasia Group, Christopher Garman.
In an interview with CNNhe said this Sunday (27) that the consultancy is “skeptical about the meeting” announced between Russia and Ukraine next Monday (28).
“There may be some kind of beginning of negotiation talks, but we are seeing that Russian forces have encountered some stronger resistance than expected, they are recalibrating strategies, bringing in nests of supplies, there has been a certain pause, but without a full capitation of Ukrainian forces. , which I think is very unlikely to happen now, the failure of the talks could provide a pretext for Russian forces to start a second wave of attacks against the capital”, he evaluates.
According to him, the pretext of starting talks and then carrying out attacks in the country is a pattern that Putin has followed before. “Putin’s ultimate goal is regime change in Ukraine and taking control of the country and capital. Despite this military difficulty over the last 48 hours, we believe that Russian forces are in a position to achieve these objectives.”
In his view, the negotiations would only have conditions of success if there was a change in strategy on the Russian side, which would happen if Putin “comes to the conclusion that the economic cost would be greater than he is expecting”.
Even so, Garman points out that the U.S and the countries of Europe have “acted strongly” to give Russia a sign of isolation, trying not only to stop short-term actions, but to signal that, if Putin takes the situation to the extreme, “the costs for Russia will be very great in economic and diplomatic”.
In this sense, the analyst considers that it will be “increasingly difficult” for Brazil to maintain a position of neutrality in relation to the conflict, as recently defended by President Jair Bolsonaro.
“Looking ahead, the countries of Europe and the US will put enormous pressure on countries like Brazil to be able to take a stand against this aggression against Ukraine. Brazil’s position of keeping the doors open to the two countries is not stable over time, and the tendency is for Brazil to assume positions more opposed to the invasion of Ukraine because the cost of doing so increases over time”, it says.
Garman states that the war in Ukraine “is not going away anytime soon”, and that “we will hardly go back to the previous status quo, most likely we are with a variant of a new Cold War between the US and Russia. The geography of security in Europe has changed, so maintaining relations with Russia will be more complicated going forward. This dilemma that President Bolsonaro is experiencing is a transition to this new reality, and there will be several moments in which this ambiguity will be increasingly difficult to maintain.”
See images of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Source: CNN Brasil
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