Quaest poll for president: Lula has 46%; Bolsonaro, 30%; and Ciro, 7%

Genius Research/Quaest to the 2022 presidential election first published by the CNN This Wednesday (8), in the scenario with the largest number of candidates, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is at the forefront, with 46% of voting intentions in the first round, followed by President Jair Bolsonaro. (PL), with 30%.

Then appear Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 7%; André Janones (Avante) with 2%; and Simone Tebet (MDB) and Pablo Marçal (Pros), with 1% each.

Seven pre-candidates did not score: Felipe d’Avila (Novo), José Maria Eymael (DC), Leonardo Péricles (UP), Luciano Bivar (União Brasil), Santos Cruz (Podemos), Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Vera Lúcia ( PSTU).

Those who say they will vote blank, cancel or fail to vote add up to 7%. The proportion of those who are undecided is 6%.

The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. Two thousand people were interviewed face to face between the 2nd and 5th.

In the three tested first-round scenarios, Lula would win in the first round.

The survey is 95% confident. That is, if 100 surveys were carried out, at least 95 would present the same results within this margin.

The research was registered at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-03552/2022.

Three second-round scenarios were also tested. Check out all the scenarios below.

First round

Stimulated voting intention for president

Scenario I

• Lula (PT) – 46%
• Bolsonaro (PL) – 30%
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 7%
• André Janones (Forward) – 2%
• Simone Tebet (MDB) – 1%
• Pablo Marçal (Pros) – 1%
• Felipe d’Avila (New) – 0
• José Maria Eymael (DC) – 0
• Luciano Bivar (Union Brazil) – 0
• Leonardo Pericles (UP) – 0
• Santos Cruz (Podemos) – 0
• Sofia Manzano (PCB) – 0
• Vera Lucia (PSTU) – 0
• Undecided – 6%
• White/Null/Will not vote – 7%

Scenario II

• Lula (PT) – 47%
• Bolsonaro (PL) – 29%
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 9%
• Simone Tebet (MDB) – 3%
• Undecided – 5%
• White/Null/Will not vote – 7%

Scenario III

• Lula (PT) – 48%
• Bolsonaro (PL) – 30%
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 9%
• André Janones (Forward) – 3%
• Undecided – 4%
• White/Null/Will not vote – 7%

second round

Stimulated voting intention for president

Scenario I

• Lula (PT) – 54%
• Bolsonaro (PL) – 32%
• Undecided – 3%
• White/Null/Will not vote – 9%

Scenario II

• Lula (PT) – 52%
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 25%
• Undecided – 4%
• White/Null/Will not vote – 19%

Scenario III

• Lula (PT) – 56%
• Simone Tebet (MDB) – 20%
• Undecided – 4%
• White/Null/Will not vote – 20%

Debate

THE CNN will hold the first presidential debate of 2022. The clash between the candidates will be broadcast live on August 6, on TV and on our digital platforms.

Photos – The pre-candidates for the presidency