Experts interviewed by CNN Brasil Business pointed out that the main aspects that real estate fund investors (FIIs) should be aware of in July are: inflation indicators and the financial results of companies.
If prices of goods and services continue to rise, central banks will be pressured to accelerate interest rate hikes at the next meetings, which would affect the price of funds, says Bruno Viveiros, investment analyst at Warren.
However, some fund classes tend to demonstrate greater resilience to these movements. Paper funds, for example, behaved more positively in recent months in view of the characteristics of assets that have bonds indexed to inflation and to CDI.
The 12-month accumulated IPCA (Extended Consumer Price Index) is 11.73%, according to data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). The Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) revised the inflation forecast for 2022 by 0.1 percentage point, from 6.5% to 6.6%.
On the other hand, company balance sheets indicate a slowdown in the economy, which would not leave real estate funds free from the process of divestment from the real economy, in exchange for the search for security, says Idean Alves, partner and head of the variable income trading desk at Ação Brazil.
“Usually in times of recession, it is decided to reduce investments not only in the real estate market, largely due to the increase in investor risk perception, in addition to lower consumer and business confidence”.
Adding to this, the expert says that there is an electoral period, which historically adds volatility to the markets. The election in Brazil is scheduled for October 2.
July portfolio
O CNN Brasil Business analyzed the nominations of eight brokers and banks: XP, Warren, Genial, Ativa, Guide, BTG Pactual, Órama and Terra Investimentos.
The three most suggested funds for this month were the same as in the survey carried out for June: Captaincy Securities II, Bresco Logística and CSHG Real Estate.
Here’s what analysts said about the FIIs with the highest recommendations for July:
Captaincy Securities II
ticker: CPTS11
Comment: XP
The Fund’s objective is to provide profitability to its shareholders through the acquisition mainly of real estate assets, in accordance with the investment policy defined in Chapter IV of its regulation.
The portfolio has a great diversification of segments and also a healthy mix of assets with higher risk and return (high yield) and lower risk (high grade) – higher proportion of high grade CRIs.
Our view and recommendation is that the last dividends distributed were around R$1.10 per share, which represents an annualized dividend yield of 14.5%.
In addition, paper funds benefit in an environment of inflation and higher interest rates.
Bresco Logística
ticker: BRCO11
Comment: BTG Pactual
Bresco Logística FII is a real estate fund focused on income and active management, with the objective of investing in logistics warehouses with a high constructive standard, in addition to being located close to the main consumption regions.
Currently, BRCO has assets located in the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro.
Our purchase suggestion for BRCO11 is based on the following pillars: great exposure to the state of São Paulo, the main consumer market in the country; greater exposure to atypical contracts; very high standard properties; and greater revenue predictability.
From the tenants’ point of view, the fund has great exposure to tenants with good credit quality and relevant positioning in their markets, such as Grupo Pão de Açúcar, Magazine Luiza, Natura, BRF, B2W, Mercado Livre, among others.
CSHG Real Estate
ticker: HGRE11
Comment: drama
Managed by Credit Suisse, its portfolio comprises 19 properties, with the greatest exposure in São Paulo. Despite being highly dispersed, the portfolio’s financial vacancy is not low, currently at 24.6%.
As for commercial activities, the fund is very active in the search for new tenants to occupy vacant areas, and has already been announcing new leases.
As informed by the manager, closing vacancies and increasing recurring income are the main objectives for 2022.
Considering the requested rental prices and cost reduction, the fund has the potential to deliver R$ 1.05 per share (dividend yield of 10%).
The HGRE is undergoing a period of portfolio renewal, seeking to increase its interest in certain assets and the sale of properties outside São Paulo. This strategy has generated additional capital gains, and reinforces the focus on the management of higher quality properties.
Source: CNN Brasil
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