In an interview with CNN This Saturday (13), the director of the National Supply Company (Conab), Sergio De Zen, said that a record harvest of Brazilian grains this year could lead to a reduction in protein production costs and, consequently, a drop in inflation for the consumer.
“Probably at the end of the year, around Christmas, the production costs of meats, especially, which are very consumed at the end of the year, should have prices lower than expected at the beginning of the year”, he said.
The forecast of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) in July, released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), is for a record agricultural harvest in 2022, totaling 263.4 million tons – up 4.0% in compared to the 2021 result, equivalent to 10.2 million tons more.
“Although in southern Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina, there was this drought that led to the loss of something around 4 million tons of corn and something around 15 million tons of soybeans, the second crop and the crop in the Midwest occurred in the correct period. So we had a very positive soybean crop in the Midwest, we are having a very positive corn crop, with productivity records”, explained De Zen.
Considering the international market, the expert stated that the scenario is not so optimistic. According to him, despite the positive outlook for the reopening of Ukrainian ports for grain exports, weather conditions are not favoring planting.
“In the Northern Hemisphere, we are experiencing a climate moment that is not the best for crops, so we have problems in Western Europe, the countries of Europe have been experiencing a moment of high temperatures with low rainfall, which is dry; the United States has some spots that they are losing, it’s not hugely worrisome, but it does reduce that production,” she explained.
Still, according to De Zen, the expectation is for an increase in global supply. “On the other hand, you have a monetary policy action by governments to restrict consumption, increasing interest rates. So demand is decreasing and supply is increasing. The result of this is lower prices, both in Brazil and in other countries.”
* Under supervision of Elis Franco
Source: CNN Brasil
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