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Reduction in gasoline prices likely to contribute to deflation, says expert

The reduction announced by Petrobras of 7.08% in the price of gasoline for distributors begins to take effect this Friday (2). The liter will go from R$ 3.53 to R$ 3.28, a reduction of R$ 0.25.

With inflation expected around zero for September, the change should hit the official gauge at -0.24 percentage point and contribute to a negative Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) this month. The assessment is by economist André Braz, who coordinates the Consumer Price Index of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre).

“The chance of people having negative inflation at the end of this month increased due to the weight that gasoline has in the family budget, which compromises an average of 6.5%”, says Braz.

The economist believes that the discount on the price to distributors should cause a 4% decrease in common gasoline sold at stations. Thus, considering the average price in Brazil of R$ 5.25 per liter, according to the latest bulletin from the National Petroleum Agency (ANP), consumers can save, on average, R$ 0.21 per liter to fill up their vehicles. .

André Braz points out, however, that gasoline is considered a “luxury good” and that the reduction mainly serves the upper middle class. Due to the scope of the IPCA, which includes families with a monthly income of 1 to 40 times the minimum wage (R$ 1,212.00 to R$ 48,480.00), the impact is still felt in the indicator.

“The lower middle class, which has been facing inflation as a major challenge, does not benefit from cheaper gasoline. If this drop were in diesel, the effect would be discreet on the IPCA, but the social and long-term impact would be greater, as it would impact on the reduction of freight and the readjustment of the public transport tariff”, he explains.

For the year, the inflation forecast was also low, according to the FGV specialist. The expected number was 6.6%, but with the drop in gasoline, the expected value was 6.4%. The official index accumulates a high of 10.07% in the last 12 months and a deflation of 0.68% in July, according to the IBGE.

For the president of the Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers (Abicom), Sérgio Araújo, the reduction is consistent with the price policy adopted by the Brazilian state-owned company, which follows international parity. He explains that, in the foreign market, gasoline has had successive reductions over the last few days and that there is still a tendency for a new drop in the price of fuel.

According to Abicom’s market opening report this Thursday (1st), day of Petrobras’ announcement, gasoline was 12% behind the value practiced in the foreign market, with an average of R$ 0.36.

The reduction in gasoline is the fourth announced by Petrobras in less than two months.

(*Under supervision of Pauline Almeida)

Source: CNN Brasil

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