After the third week of war in Ukraine there is stagnation. British analysts are trying to explain Moscow’s tactics and Putin’s future.
This morning the British Ministry of Defense in its daily update on the situation in Ukraine published an analysis, having processed information at its disposal: Initially it sees great stagnation of the Russians on all fronts, while stressing that Russian forces have made little progress in land, air and sea in recent days as they continue to record large losses in equipment and manpower. On the other hand, it highlights the steady and well-organized Ukrainian resistance, with the majority of Ukrainian regions and major cities remaining in Ukrainian hands.
“We are not close to peace”
Indeed, the pause seems to be in line with the course of the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, following the information on a draft 15-point agreement being worked out by both sides. However, British military analysts are not optimistic that we are one step closer to peace. Anthony King, Warwick University’s director of war studies, attributes the temporary calm to a “tactic of rebuilding Russian troops.” This is confirmed by the information of the British Ministry of Defense, which speaks about the transfer of Russian soldiers from the eastern military areas, the Pacific fleet, but also from Georgia and Estonia to the western border.
British analysts point out that these military forces have less operational experience than those in the western extremity, while an important factor is that they do not know the areas at all.
“Revolution or coup” is the only solution to end the war
At the same time, an analysis by the largest British Institute for Defense and Security Research (RUSI) concludes that although Russia is militarily in a difficult position, the only hope for the Putin regime to survive and remain in power is to continue. war.
In fact, he points out that as the West has “turned its back on him”, whether Putin wants to or not, he will become a puppet of Beijing. The only solution to end the war and bring down the Putin regime is from within: either by a coup or by a revolution of Russian citizens.
Zoe Katzagiannaki, London
Source: Deutsche Welle
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