Brazil’s reservoirs ended the dry season with the best level since 2011, despite the 3.34% retraction in the equivalent volume of the SIN (National Interconnected System) compared to September, according to the report “Inter Setores Utilities”, carried out by Inter Research, based on data from ONS (National Electric System Operator), Aneel (National Electric Energy Agency) and CCEE (Electric Energy Commercialization Chamber).
According to ONS data, the results measured in the last month were the best for the Southeast/Midwest subsystem in the last decade: 51% of energy stored in September 2022, the highest percentage since 2011 (65.4%).
The study also observed in September a 58% retraction – year on year – in the level of thermal generation, given the improvement in the water scenario and the annual expansion of wind energy (14%) and photovoltaic energy (55%).
With the stability of the hydrological scenario, the green flag was announced on April 16 of this year, being maintained in October, according to Aneel’s announcement.
In an interview with CNN Rafael Winalda, an analyst at Inter Research, says that, with the positive performance of this dry period and with the expectation of rain in the coming months, the green flag should be kept during the year 2023.
“Our water level is very comfortable and we expect a normal rainy season, which will be between the end of October and March. As our system is very dependent on hydric energy, the expectation, according to this latest study, is that a greater dispatch of thermal energy will not be necessary, that is, it will not be necessary to trigger any type of flag next year, if we have a normal rainy season,” said Winalda.
Regions
The report shows that the period of higher temperatures and greater drought in the North region led to a retraction of 14 percentage points (pp) in the volume of reservoirs, but it is still considerably above its average since the year 2000.
Northeast, Southeast/Midwest showed some stability, but still above their historical averages.
The South region presented a growth of 0.4 pp in its level of reservoirs, which reached a mark of 91%, due to the low temperatures and the increase in the level of rainfall.
Affluent Natural Energy (ENA)
The level of affluence (that is, the amount of water received by a hydroelectric plant that can be transformed into energy) of the subsystems in the North, Northeast and Southeast/Midwest regions is aligned with their seasonality curve, remaining close to to its average of the last 5 years.
The South region was the highlight of the month, showing a jump of 128% in the ENA level compared to September.
Energy consumption
According to the Inter Research report, considering data up to October 15th, among the states that lead the changes in consumption by state are Rondônia (8.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (8.5%) and Maranhão (7, 6%) in y/y growth compared to the previous year.
On the other hand, Piauí (-4.7%) and Rio Grande do Norte (-3.7%) present the greatest retractions year on year. Roraima is not part of the SIN.
Among the sectors that stood out with annual growth, the study highlighted: commercial (6.7%), industrial (2.9%) and residential (2.1%).
Source: CNN Brasil
Joe Jameson, a technology journalist with over 2 years of experience, writes for top online news websites. Specializing in the field of technology, Joe provides insights into the latest advancements in the industry. Currently, he contributes to covering the world stock market.
