Some financial institutions are pointing to an improvement in the estimate of Brazilian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the 1st quarter of 2022. Rafaela Vitória, chief economist at Banco Inter, said in an interview with CNN that this movement is due to the resumption of sectors that made consumption grow again.
The bank is forecasting a GDP of 1%, 1.2% compared to last year’s quarter. Vitória stated that at the beginning of the year expectations were for stability, but “we had some positive surprises over the last three months”.
The latest IBGE readings show that Brazil’s industrial production had its first quarterly gain in 2022, after four straight quarters of decline. In the 2021 comparison, however, the industrial sector accumulates a fall of 4.5% in the first quarter of this year.
While the retail sector grew more than expected in March — period in which the volume of services jumped 1.7%, the strongest result for the month in the historical series started in 2011.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, GDP increased by 0.5%. The main responsible was the service sector, favored by the advance of vaccination and the normalization of consumption by families at the end of the year. In 2021, growth was 4.6% compared to the year 2020, which registered a drop of 4.1%, strongly impacted by the pandemic.
The expert also said that some sectors have already reached pre-pandemic levels, but what remains is to resume the level of growth at the time. “There were two years less growth, so there is still room to recover”.
However, the chief economist at Inter considered that she was not so excited for the recovery in the coming months, “because there is a monetary tightening underway.”
The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom ) of central bank (BC) announced, on May 4, a new hike of 1 percentage point in the basic interest rate. Thus, the Selic rate increases from 11.75% per annum (pa) to 12.75% per annum.
“[De todo modo]the news [do PIB] it is to be celebrated, but the growth rate should be more modest”.
Source: CNN Brasil
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