Large-scale Russian military exercises in Belarus begin on Thursday, in a show of force by Moscow that “embraces” Minsk by strengthening its operational capabilities in the context of its confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
The Russia-Belarus joint exercise, called the Allied Resolve, is, according to NATO, the largest deployment of Moscow troops on the territory of the former Soviet Republic since the end of the Cold War. The exercises will last until February 20 and are part of a gathering of Russian troops near Ukraine that has sparked concerns about an impending Russian invasion.
Russia, which denies any plans to invade its neighbor, has not revealed how many troops will take part in the exercise.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg estimated last week that Russia was expected to deploy 30,000 troops to Belarus, as well as Spetsnaz special operations forces, SU-35 fighters, S-400 air defense systems and Iskander missiles capable of carrying warheads.
“From a military point of view, this move by Russia creates a new front that Ukraine should be concerned about, which will have to deploy its forces on its large defensive perimeter,” said Neil Melvin, director of think tank RUSI’s International Security Studies Division. in London.
Russian troops are approaching Kiev from the north, which is just over 90 kilometers from the border with Belarus.
With the development of fighters and air defense systems, Russia is effectively protecting Kaliningrad from any blockade by Western powers, while electronic interception systems in Belarus make it difficult for Western intelligence to gather, Melvin said.
“No more ambiguity”
For years, Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko, a “cunning administrator” who has ruled the country since 1994, resisted the idea of hosting a permanent Russian military base, playing the “Western card” for his own political gain.
But since Russian President Vladimir Putin backed him politically and financially to overcome the problems of the major opposition protests of 2020, Lukashenko has lost even his fictitious autonomy, analysts say.
“I think Lukashenko finally made that decision: to stay in power he would have to rely on his strategic alliance with Moscow, and of course joint military exercises are another expression of this new approach,” said Andrei Kortunov, the Russian leader. Council on Foreign Affairs.
“Now he has the full support of Putin in exchange for his commitment. Obviously both sides are happy with this agreement, at least for now,” he said.
In recent months, Lukashenko has publicly offered to host Russian missiles in Belarus. Moscow and Minsk have agreed on a common military doctrine. Russian fighters now patrol regularly on the border with Belarus.
Last year, the two countries jointly opened a military training center in Grodno, western Belarus.
“All of this signals a permanent Russian presence in Belarus,” said Mathieu Boulegue, a researcher at the Chatham House think tank in London. “Say it the way you want it to be: whatever the rhetorical pattern, it is an informal permanent Russian presence in Belarus, a development that Moscow has always wanted.”
On February 27, a referendum is expected to be held in Belarus to change its constitution. Among the amendments is the abolition of Belarus’s official status as a “neutral” country and as a “nuclear-free” zone.
“Pandora’s box”
The Kremlin has said that Russian troops will return to their bases once the exercises are completed.
However, the deported Belarusian opposition, which has been worried for years that Lukashenko is offering sovereign rights in exchange for Moscow’s support, fears that Russian troops will not leave the country altogether.
“Lukashenko has opened the Pandora’s box. He thinks he is still in control, but we are not sure about that. Is he able to ensure that these troops will return home or not?” Asks Franak Viacorka. Adviser to the Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Read also:
* Putin’s economic “arsenal” to withstand a war in Ukraine
* Ukrainian: Why Putin will get what he wants from Biden
* What will happen to the markets if Putin invades Ukraine?
Source: Capital
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