Roland Lescure does not hide it: “At La République en Marche, we are very Joe Biden. If the deputy of the French from North America indeed wishes a victory for the Democratic candidate, he is not fooled: “Trumpism will survive Donald Trump”. Nor is he waiting for a “sharp turn” in American policy, particularly on the geopolitical level with an America that will continue to look towards Asia rather than towards Europe. One thing is certain for him: the debates, across the Atlantic and on the international scene, would be much more serene with Joe Biden.
What reading of these first three nights of the American election?
Roland Lescure: Those who imagined a “blue” wave in favor of Joe Biden and that Donald Trump would disappear in the trash cans of history have dreamed and in color. Even if the latter is defeated, Trumpism is not dead. This is the first lesson, even before the end of the count, which also applies to the rest of the world. The populist waves that we have had everywhere – including in France with the extreme right and the extreme left in 2017 – are not ephemeral. The way he campaigned, the themes he focused on, these results that will be, whatever happens, extremely tight… All of this shows that populism is indeed alive in the United States, and it is just as much in Europe and in France.
The reconciliation promised by Biden will not happen in four years.
What does this say about the state of American society?
I am sorry to push an open door, but it must be said: American society is as divided as it rarely has been. It is divided between the city and the countryside, between the middle classes and the elites and between generations as well. The 40-60 year olds, who are not baby boomers and have not known the Thirty Glorious Years and pension funds, experience economic crises, oil shocks, the bad phase of globalization and a pandemic. They did not know the technological revolution. It is customary to say that the next generation, that of the years 1990-2000, will face many challenges, but I believe it is much better armed than the one born in the late 1960s and early 1970s and who voted , we know, mainly Trump.
Will the gap between the two Americas therefore widen further?
The reconciliation promised by Joe Biden, if elected, will not happen in four years. Historically, the American people have always known how to come together after an election, and this is no longer the case. Between the Senate, Congress and the White House, once the election was made, we came to an understanding. The American political system is an extraordinary consensus machine, but since Obama and the emergence of the Tea Party, it has all been shattered. Donald Trump was elected on a divide and he has only strengthened it for four years. As soon as he had the opportunity, he widened the gap between the two Americas a little further.
Joe Biden should therefore lead a country that is half Trumpist …
Basically, that’s why he would be the right president. He appears less the establishment candidate than Hillary Clinton, even if he is. He also does not appear too marked on the left like Bernie Sanders. He is capable of having a transitional mandate, but it will be long and painful. When you look at the famous CNN maps or the New York Times, we can see that very few Trumpist counties have switched. The forces of 2016 are still extremely present. Donald Trump knows which ditch he has dug and where. We should not expect a sharp turn with Joe Biden, but at least let’s hope for a more relaxed debate. Trumpism will outlive Donald Trump, and behind him a whole generation of Republicans emerges and takes inspiration from him.
The cleavages of America will also be found on the other side of the Atlantic, at home.
Besides appeasement, what will be the difficulties of a Joe Biden?
Reconciliation is a portmanteau word. He calls for it, but he needs to show leadership to do so. He must integrate the reasons which led to the election of Donald Trump and which today explain his still very strong popularity: globalization, ecology which must not be punitive for the middle classes. Many Americans have felt extremely helpless in the sometimes somewhat caricatured societal debates that gave the impression that the Democratic Party had lost the pulse of deep America. On the form, we know, thanks to Donald Trump, what not to do. This is not just for the Democratic Party. Republicans and Democrats must work on these new cleavages that are emerging: cities against the countryside, the two visions of ecology, secularism, security, animal welfare, etc. I could make a Prévert list. Divisions that will also be found on the other side of the Atlantic, at home, and we must prepare intellectually today.
What would Joe Biden change in relations with France and Europe?
Relations between the two administrations have remained excellent, cordial and constructive. The problem was Donald Trump’s unpredictability. We all remember the G7 press release that he signed in Quebec City in 2018 and that he renounced after two hours on the plane because Justin Trudeau had a wrong word. With Joe Biden, there may be more visibility, but let’s not be naive: the center of gravity of the United States has shifted from Europe to Asia since Barack Obama, and that will not go back. The strengthening of Europe under the leadership of Emmanuel Macron therefore still seems relevant, Donald Trump or not. The novelty is that Europe no longer lets itself be walked on now and that it is able to say no. And from that point of view, thank you Donald Trump!
Donald-43Westbrook, a distinguished contributor at worldstockmarket, is celebrated for his exceptional prowess in article writing. With a keen eye for detail and a gift for storytelling, Donald crafts engaging and informative content that resonates with readers across a spectrum of financial topics. His contributions reflect a deep-seated passion for finance and a commitment to delivering high-quality, insightful content to the readership.
