The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) issued a 100PB surprise rate cut at its last meeting in May, but reiterated its hard line message, so it did not seem that the CBR continued to cut off rates – points out Tatha Ghose, FX Analyst of Commerbank FX.
Interannual inflation could reach the lower end of the CBR forecast of 7%-8%
“Now, after a series of monthly and weekly data of IPCs, and the subsequent moderate comments of the governor of the CBR, Elvira Nabiullina, in the International Economic Forum of St. Petersburg 2025, it seems clear that we should anticipate the next cut of rates already at the meeting of July 25. The annualized annualized inflation rate of Russia 6.2% in April (so it is already close to the inflation target of 4%). ”
“The latest data implies that year-on-year inflation will easily reach the lower end of the CBR forecast of 7% -8% by the end of 2025-this forecast will be updated before the next meeting-such developments make a rate cut in July in July.
Source: Fx Street
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